TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 28, 10:38 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks whether specific technology-related terms will be mentioned during Microsoft's upcoming earnings call. The outcome depends on the verbal content of the call, focusing on references to various tech projects, products, or partnerships.
Kalshi
The event evaluates multiple distinct conditions regarding the mention of specific terms during Microsoft's next live earnings call or official broadcast, including any Q+A sessions. A market resolves to 'Yes' if any representative of Microsoft Corporation (which includes the operator of the call) utters any of the specified terms — OpenAI (at least three times), Gaming, Cybersecurity, Anthropic/Claude, Frontier, AMD/Advanced Micro Devices, Helios, GitHub (at least three times), Maia, Memory (at least three times), Activision/Blizzard, Autopilot, Cobalt, or Sovereign Cloud — in their exact form, or any plural or possessive variation of these terms. The resolution relies primarily on video footage of the earnings call. If video consensus among Kalshi employees is unattainable, official transcripts from designated news publications will serve as the fallback for determination. Grammatical or tense variations of the terms do not count toward payout eligibility. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any formal affiliation with Microsoft or ownership of related trademarks, logos, or brand names.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a unique perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for the Microsoft earnings call. While analysts often provide point estimates or ranges for key metrics, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, reflecting a broader range of potential scenarios and their associated probabilities. This can reveal insights into market expectations that might not be captured by individual analyst reports. It’s important to note that the market’s predictions are based on traders’ beliefs about what will actually be *said* during the call, not necessarily future performance.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the outcome of the Microsoft earnings call. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective intelligence of the market. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a constantly updated assessment of expectations surrounding the earnings call.
This market resolves around Nov 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the outcome will be determined by a review of the official transcript of the Microsoft earnings call. The market will assess whether the statements made during the call match the conditions outlined in the market’s possible outcomes. This ensures a transparent and objective resolution process based on publicly available information.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Any pre-earnings news releases from Microsoft, including announcements about key products or financial performance, could shift trader sentiment. Analyst upgrades or downgrades of Microsoft stock could also influence the market. Furthermore, broader macroeconomic news, such as interest rate changes or shifts in the tech sector, might impact expectations. Finally, leaks or rumors regarding the content of the earnings call itself could cause substantial price fluctuations in this market.
