TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 8, 12:37 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Zohran Mamdani says the listed term during his next livestream on the NYC Mayor's Office official YouTube Channel. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If no such announcement happens by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". If Mamdani officially ceases to be New York City mayor for any length of time by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market refers to the first livestream where Zohran Mamdani speaks after market creation from the NYC Mayor's Office (https://www.youtube.com/@NYCMayorsOffice). Any livestream posted to that channel where Zohran Mamdani speaks will qualify. Any livestream posted to that channel where Zohran Mamdani does not speak will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be footage of the relevant announcement. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Mentions/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Zohran Mamdani says the listed term during his next livestream on the NYC Mayor's Office official YouTube Channel. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If no such announcement happens by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". If Mamdani officially ceases to be New York City mayor for any length of time by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market refers to the first livestream where Zohran Mamdani speaks after market creation from the NYC Mayor's Office (https://www.youtube.com/@NYCMayorsOffice). Any livestream posted to that channel where Zohran Mamdani speaks will qualify. Any livestream posted to that channel where Zohran Mamdani does not speak will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be footage of the relevant announcement. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Mentions/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional polling data regarding what Mamdani will say. While polls capture stated preferences, this market reflects what people *believe* will actually happen, incentivized by financial stakes. This often leads to differences, particularly when considering the potential for strategic or nuanced messaging. It’s important to remember that polls and this market measure different things, and both can provide valuable insights into expectations surrounding the announcement.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in each possible outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the collective wisdom of the market. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price movements are driven by supply and demand; increased buying pressure raises the price, indicating growing confidence in that outcome, while increased selling pressure lowers it. This dynamic pricing ensures the market reflects the latest information and insights.
This market is scheduled to resolve around Nov 1, 2026. The outcome will be determined by a review of publicly available transcripts or recordings of Mamdani’s live announcement. The specific statement that is closest to what is ultimately said will be considered the winning outcome, verified against credible public reporting. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders should note that the resolution depends on a clear and verifiable record of the announcement’s content.
Several signals could significantly impact this market before resolution. Any official statements or hints from Mamdani’s team regarding the announcement’s content would likely cause price movement. Major political developments or breaking news events related to the topics Mamdani typically addresses could also shift expectations. Furthermore, shifts in public sentiment, as reflected in traditional media or social media, might influence traders’ beliefs and therefore the odds in this market. Unexpected changes in the announcement schedule could also introduce volatility.
