TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 7, 5:20 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Zohran Mamdani says the listed term during his next livestream on the NYC Mayor's Office official YouTube Channel. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If no such announcement happens by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". If Mamdani officially ceases to be New York City mayor for any length of time by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market refers to the first livestream where Zohran Mamdani speaks after market creation from the NYC Mayor's Office (https://www.youtube.com/@NYCMayorsOffice). Any livestream posted to that channel where Zohran Mamdani speaks will qualify. Any livestream posted to that channel where Zohran Mamdani does not speak will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be footage of the relevant announcement. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Mentions/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Zohran Mamdani says the listed term during his next livestream on the NYC Mayor's Office official YouTube Channel. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If no such announcement happens by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". If Mamdani officially ceases to be New York City mayor for any length of time by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market refers to the first livestream where Zohran Mamdani speaks after market creation from the NYC Mayor's Office (https://www.youtube.com/@NYCMayorsOffice). Any livestream posted to that channel where Zohran Mamdani speaks will qualify. Any livestream posted to that channel where Zohran Mamdani does not speak will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be footage of the relevant announcement. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Mentions/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to polling averages for statements Mamdani might make is challenging due to the specificity of the market. Traditional polls typically ask about broader political preferences or approval ratings, while this market focuses on the precise wording of a future announcement. Polling data may offer insight into general sentiment regarding the figures mentioned, but it doesn't directly translate to the probability of those names appearing in a specific speech. Therefore, this market provides a unique perspective beyond what standard polls capture.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in each outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly, providing a dynamic assessment of the likelihood of different statements being made. The market’s efficiency relies on the wisdom of the crowd and the incentive to accurately forecast the event.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on a review of the transcript or official recording of Mamdani’s next live announcement to determine whether the specified statement or topic was included. The outcome will be determined by whether the predicted phrase is audibly spoken or appears in the official written transcript of the announcement. The market will settle based on this verified information.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 1, 2026. Any public statements made by Mamdani or his team hinting at the topics he intends to address would be a major catalyst. Major political developments involving the figures mentioned in the market could also shift probabilities. Unexpected news events or controversies could also influence what Mamdani chooses to discuss in his next announcement, thereby impacting trading activity and the market's overall price. Increased media attention on the market itself could also drive volume and price fluctuations.
