TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 22, 11:09 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
The segment will feature Josh Turek as a guest on a political commentary show. Specific phrases spoken by Turek during the live broadcast will determine the outcomes of various markets.
Kalshi
Multiple markets will resolve based on whether Josh Turek utters specific phrases during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell scheduled for October 22, 2026. Resolution relies on reviewing the live broadcast video or official transcripts if video consensus cannot be reached. Each market has unique payout criteria requiring the exact phrase or its plural/possessive form to be spoken by Turek in an official capacity. Grammatical variations, unaired content, and off-mic comments do not count. If the event is canceled, the 'Event does not qualify' market resolves to Yes, closing all others. Postponements within 14 days keep markets open.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinion. In this market, the odds reflect what traders believe is most likely to be said by Josh Turek, based on their own research and insights. This differs from traditional polls or analyst predictions, which may rely on specific methodologies or biases. While analysts might focus on Turek's past statements or political leanings, this market incorporates a wider range of information and perspectives, potentially offering a more accurate forecast of his commentary.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly, providing a real-time assessment of expectations. The current prices are determined solely by supply and demand within Kalshi and represent the aggregated beliefs of those trading in this specific market.
This market resolves around Nov 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will depend on a review of the transcript or video recording of Josh Turek’s appearance on The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell to determine what statements he made. The outcome will be based on the content of his commentary during the broadcast, and verified against credible public sources. The market will settle to 100% for the outcome that best reflects the actual statements made by Turek.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before it resolves. Any news regarding Josh Turek's planned appearance, including previews of topics he might discuss or changes to the show's schedule, could influence trading activity. Major political developments or breaking news stories relevant to Turek's areas of expertise could also shift expectations. Furthermore, any public statements made by Turek himself leading up to the broadcast could provide clues about his likely commentary, causing the odds in this market to adjust accordingly.
