TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 6, 11:10 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
The event tracks specific phrases that Josh Turek might utter during a television interview. It resolves based on whether he says certain predefined words or combinations of words during the broadcast. The outcome depends purely on his verbal statements within the live show.
Kalshi
Multiple markets exist for this event, each corresponding to a specific phrase or condition that Josh Turek may or may not say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell scheduled for October 6, 2026. Each market resolves to Yes if Turek utters the exact specified phrase—including plural or possessive forms—in an official capacity during the live broadcast. Resolution relies primarily on video footage of the show; if video consensus cannot be reached among Kalshi employees, official internal and external transcripts are used. Certain content—such as grammatical variations, off-mic remarks, archival footage, or unaired material—does not count toward payout qualifications. If the event is definitively canceled, postponed beyond the allowed window, or otherwise unable to resolve normally, the "Event does not qualify" market resolves to Yes, and all other markets resolve to No. Postponements announced within one calendar day and rescheduled within 14 days keep all markets open.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals interesting insights into collective wisdom versus expert opinion. While analysts offer reasoned predictions based on their expertise, this market aggregates the views of many individuals, potentially capturing a wider range of information and perspectives. If analysts broadly anticipate a specific topic from Josh Turek, we might see corresponding higher probabilities in this market for related outcomes. However, discrepancies can arise if market participants possess unique insights or react differently to the same information, providing a valuable contrast to traditional forecasting.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust accordingly, providing a real-time indication of expectations. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s depth—the number of contracts available at various price points—also influences price discovery and provides insights into the strength of conviction behind different predictions.
This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on a transcript or reliable recording of Josh Turek’s commentary during his appearance on The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell. The outcome will be determined by whether the statements made by Turek match the descriptions outlined in the market’s possible outcomes. The resolution process aims to provide a clear and objective determination based on publicly available information.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before resolution. Any public statements made by Josh Turek prior to the show, hinting at potential topics he might discuss, would likely influence trading activity. News coverage or social media discussions surrounding relevant current events could also shift expectations. Furthermore, the specific focus of Lawrence O'Donnell’s questioning during the interview itself could impact the probabilities as traders anticipate Turek’s responses. Unexpected developments or breaking news occurring close to the broadcast date could also introduce volatility into this market.
