TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 19, 8:09 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
The market tracks whether Jon Ossoff will mention specific topics during a scheduled television appearance. Resolution depends on verifying his statements from the broadcast or official transcripts, with special rules for event cancellations or postponements.
Kalshi
Multiple markets resolve based on whether Jon Ossoff utters specified phrases during MS NOW: The Weeknight scheduled for October 19, 2026. Each market defines a unique phrase or set of phrases (e.g., “Election,” “Healthcare,” “Trump (3+ times)”). The outcome is determined by reviewing the live broadcast or official transcripts for exact matches to the defined phrases, including plural or possessive forms where applicable. Grammatical variations, unaired content, and off-mic comments do not count. If the event is canceled or fails to meet resolution criteria, the “Event does not qualify” market resolves to Yes, nullifying others. Postponements within 14 days keep markets open. Consensus between video and transcripts resolves disputes.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals interesting insights into collective wisdom versus expert opinion. While analysts often provide pre-event predictions based on research and expertise, this market reflects the aggregated beliefs of a diverse group of traders who continuously update their assessments as new information emerges. It’s common to see discrepancies, as markets can incorporate factors analysts might overlook or underestimate. This dynamic interplay between expert forecasts and market-based probabilities offers a more nuanced understanding of potential outcomes surrounding the topics Jon Ossoff may address.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of each outcome. The price of a contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of that outcome’s likelihood. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect new information and changing sentiment. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The closer we get to the interview, the more volatile prices may become as traders react to any pre-interview statements or news coverage related to Jon Ossoff and potential discussion points. This creates opportunities for informed traders to capitalize on perceived mispricings.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on a review of the complete transcript of Jon Ossoff's interview on The Weeknight. The market will determine which of the listed topics were actually mentioned by Jon Ossoff during the broadcast. The outcome will be determined by a clear and unambiguous presence of the topic within the interview transcript, allowing for a definitive assessment of the market’s predictions.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before resolution. Any pre-interview statements made by Jon Ossoff regarding his intended focus during The Weeknight would likely cause shifts in the odds. Major news events or policy announcements related to topics he is likely to discuss could also influence trading activity. Furthermore, the release of polling data or analyst reports focusing on key issues could impact market sentiment. Increased media attention surrounding the interview itself, or any unexpected developments leading up to Nov 2, 2026, could also lead to substantial price movements within this market.
