TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 22, 11:30 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks specific phrases that Jon Ossoff might use during a television interview. The outcome depends on whether certain exact words or phrases appear in his spoken remarks during the broadcast. Verification uses video or transcript analysis to confirm usage.
Kalshi
The event resolves based on whether Jon Ossoff utters any of the specified phrases during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell scheduled for October 21, 2026. Each market corresponds to a unique phrase or set of phrases (e.g., "Republican," "Trump (3+ times)," "Healthcare"). The exact word, its plural, or possessive form counts, but grammatical variations do not. Only statements made during the live broadcast or official stream qualify; archival footage, unaired content, or off-mic remarks are excluded. Resolution relies first on video review, with transcripts used as a fallback if video consensus cannot be reached. If the episode is canceled, the "Event does not qualify" market wins, and all others lose. Postponements within 14 days keep markets open. All markets are evaluated independently unless the event fails to qualify, in which case only the corresponding market resolves as Yes.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders anticipating Senator Ossoff’s statements. It’s often insightful to compare these probabilities to those offered by political analysts and polling data. If analysts widely expect a focus on infrastructure, for example, the odds for that topic in this market should be relatively high. Discrepancies between prediction market prices and external forecasts can highlight areas where traders possess unique information or interpret available data differently. However, it's important to remember that prediction markets are forward-looking, incorporating expectations about future events, while polls capture past or present opinions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential statements by Jon Ossoff. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that statement being made, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, these prices will fluctuate, providing a dynamic assessment of the likely interview content. The market's efficiency stems from the incentive for traders to accurately predict the outcome, as profitable trades depend on correctly anticipating the final result.
This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, following the conclusion of Jon Ossoff’s interview on The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell. The outcome will be determined by a review of the official transcript or a reliable recording of the interview, verifying which topics Senator Ossoff discussed. The outcome will be confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will then settle based on which contracts align with the actual statements made during the broadcast, rewarding traders who accurately predicted the interview's content.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market leading up to Nov 4, 2026. Any news regarding Senator Ossoff’s planned talking points, or the focus of The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell, could significantly shift the odds. Major political developments, particularly those related to topics Ossoff frequently addresses, would also likely impact trading. Unexpected statements from Ossoff or O'Donnell prior to the interview could also cause price fluctuations. Increased media attention surrounding the interview itself, or a surge in trading volume, could also signal shifts in market sentiment.
