TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 15, 11:14 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This tracks specific phrases that Jon Ossoff might mention during a televised interview, focusing on politically charged or topical vocabulary. The outcome depends on whether he utters any of the predefined terms within the live broadcast.
Kalshi
The event evaluates whether Jon Ossoff utters any of several specified phrases during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell scheduled for October 15, 2026. Resolution relies primarily on reviewing the live broadcast video; if video consensus cannot be reached, official transcripts serve as the fallback. Each market corresponds to a unique phrase or set of phrases (e.g., "Collins", "Election", "Republican"), and the market resolves to Yes if Ossoff says the exact phrase or any of its plural/possessive forms during the broadcast while speaking officially. Grammatical variations, unaired content, and off-mic remarks do not count. If the show is canceled definitively, the "Event does not qualify" market resolves to Yes, closing all others as No. Postponements within 14 days keep markets open.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinion. Currently, this market reflects what traders believe is most likely to be discussed by Senator Ossoff, based on their willingness to buy or sell contracts. While traditional political analysts offer their predictions based on research and understanding of the political landscape, this market aggregates the views of many individuals, potentially capturing a wider range of perspectives and reacting more quickly to new information. It's a fascinating way to see if the wisdom of the crowd aligns with, or diverges from, established expert analysis.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders set the odds by placing buy and sell orders for contracts representing different potential statements by Senator Ossoff. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that statement being made, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust dynamically, providing a real-time assessment of expectations. The market's efficiency relies on a diverse range of participants and their informed trading decisions.
This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will assess what Senator Ossoff actually says during his interview on The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell. The outcome will be determined by a review of the official broadcast transcript or a reliable recording of the interview. The contracts will then pay out based on whether the statements outlined in the market options were made by Senator Ossoff during the program, providing a clear and objective resolution.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before resolution. Any breaking news related to Senator Ossoff, the topics he's likely to discuss, or the political climate could influence trader sentiment. Official statements from Senator Ossoff’s office, previews of the interview, or even Lawrence O’Donnell’s planned line of questioning could all impact the odds. Unexpected political developments or controversies could also shift focus and alter the perceived likelihood of certain statements being made. Monitoring these factors will be key to understanding the market’s movements.
