TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 29, 7:00 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks whether specific phrases are mentioned during a political rally, focusing on key topics that might resonate with voters. The rally serves as a platform for addressing various policy areas and public concerns, with each phrase representing a potential focal point of discussion.
Kalshi
The event evaluates whether JD Vance utters any of 26 specified phrases during his midterm rally in Weatherford, Texas, scheduled for October 29, 2026. Each phrase corresponds to a distinct market that resolves to Yes if the exact phrase (or its plural/possessive form) is spoken by Vance in an official capacity during the live broadcast. Verification uses video footage primarily, with official transcripts as a secondary source if needed. Markets resolve to No if the phrase is not uttered. A separate market resolves to Yes if the event is canceled, postponed beyond qualifications, or otherwise fails to meet resolution criteria, automatically closing all other markets as No. Postponements announced within 24 hours for rescheduling within 14 days keep markets open.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it’s difficult to make a direct comparison between the odds in this market and traditional analyst forecasts, as those forecasts are not yet widely available for specific statements within a political rally. However, this market aggregates the informed opinions of many individuals, potentially offering a more dynamic and responsive prediction than a single analyst’s assessment. As the rally approaches, comparing the most likely outcomes in this market with expert predictions regarding Vance’s likely messaging will be a useful exercise in assessing the wisdom of the crowd versus expert opinion.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of each outcome. The price of a contract reflects the market's collective assessment of that outcome's likelihood. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect new information and changing beliefs. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth shows how many contracts are available at different price points, indicating the potential for price movement and the level of agreement among traders.
This market resolves around Nov 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the outcome will be determined by a review of transcripts and recordings of JD Vance’s rally in Weatherford, Texas, to verify whether each statement included in the market was actually made. The resolution will be based on a clear and accurate record of the event’s content, ensuring a fair and transparent outcome for all participants in this market.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any statements made by JD Vance or his campaign team leading up to the rally, particularly those hinting at key themes or policy positions, could shift the odds. Major news events or political developments occurring before Nov 12, 2026 could also influence traders’ expectations about the rally’s content. Finally, any polling data released that indicates shifts in Vance’s public support or policy priorities could lead to adjustments in the probabilities offered in this market.
