TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 26, 3:43 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks whether specific political and economic themes are mentioned during a campaign rally. The rally will be closely monitored for key phrases that reflect current policy debates and public concerns.
Kalshi
The event evaluates whether JD Vance utters any of 25 specified phrases during his midterm rally in Belgrade, Montana. Resolution relies primarily on live video broadcasts or official transcripts, with consensus among Kalshi employees if discrepancies arise. Each market corresponds to a unique phrase; if Vance says the exact phrase—or an accepted variant like plural forms or combined terms (e.g., "China / Chinese")—the relevant market resolves to Yes. Markets resolve to No if the phrase is not uttered. A separate "Event does not qualify" market resolves to Yes if the rally is canceled, postponed beyond 14 days, or otherwise fails to meet resolution criteria, automatically setting all other markets to No. Postponements announced within one day and rescheduled within 14 days keep markets open.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional analyst forecasts, as those forecasts are often qualitative and lack the precision of a numerical probability. However, prediction markets like this one often aggregate a diverse range of perspectives, potentially offering a more accurate forecast than any single analyst. If analysts predict certain topics will be central to the rally, this market will reflect whether traders agree, and to what degree. It’s a unique way to gauge expectations surrounding the JD Vance Montana rally.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing each possible outcome—what JD Vance will say at the rally. The price of each contract reflects the market's implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy a contract, its price increases, and the implied probability goes up. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts as new information becomes available and traders update their beliefs about the event.
This market resolves around Nov 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will assess whether each statement listed in the possible outcomes was demonstrably made by JD Vance during the Montana rally. The resolution will be based on transcripts, video recordings, or reliable news reports covering the event. The outcome will be determined by a review of the rally’s content, ensuring accuracy and objectivity in determining which statements were actually delivered.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any pre-rally statements made by JD Vance, his campaign team, or related political figures could shift expectations and influence trading activity. Major news events or policy announcements occurring before the rally could also alter the focus of his speech. Additionally, any shifts in public opinion or political dynamics in Montana could affect the perceived likelihood of certain topics being addressed. Increased media coverage or prominent endorsements could also move this market as traders react to new information.
