TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 27, 2:40 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks whether specific phrases are mentioned during a political rally, focusing on key topics and issues that candidates might address to engage with voters and highlight their policy positions or campaign messages.
Kalshi
The event evaluates whether JD Vance mentions any of 29 specified phrases during his midterm rally in Howell, Michigan, scheduled for October 27, 2026. Each phrase corresponds to a distinct market that resolves to Yes if the exact phrase (or its plural/possessive form) is uttered by Vance in an official capacity during the live broadcast of the rally. Resolution relies primarily on video footage from the event; if video consensus cannot be reached, official transcripts are used. Markets resolve to No if the phrase is not mentioned, and the "Event does not qualify" market resolves to Yes if the rally is canceled, fails to meet payout criteria, or any circumstance prevents normal resolution. If the event is postponed and rescheduled within 14 calendar days, all markets remain open. Grammatical variations, unaired content, and off-mic statements do not count toward payout qualifications.
Frequently asked questions
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of each statement being uttered by JD Vance. The price of a contract reflects the market's collective belief about the likelihood of that statement occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust dynamically, creating a real-time assessment of expectations. The market’s efficiency depends on the number of participants and the quality of information they incorporate into their trading decisions.
This market resolves around Nov 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on a review of transcripts and recordings of JD Vance’s rally in Howell, Michigan, to determine whether each statement included in this market was actually made. The outcome will be based on a clear and accurate record of the spoken words, ensuring a fair and objective assessment of the market's predictions. Any ambiguity will be resolved using widely accepted standards for verifying public statements.
Several signals could significantly move this market before Nov 10, 2026. Any pre-rally statements made by JD Vance, or by his campaign team, hinting at key themes or specific phrases would likely impact trading activity. Major news events or political developments could also shift expectations about his messaging. Furthermore, the release of polling data suggesting a change in voter sentiment or a need to address specific issues could influence the probabilities. Finally, any leaks or previews of the rally’s planned content would almost certainly cause substantial movement in this market.
