TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 6, 9:10 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
The segment involves monitoring specific keyword mentions by a political figure during a scheduled television interview. Outcomes depend solely on whether certain predefined terms are spoken verbatim during the live broadcast, with strict criteria excluding off-mic or archival content.
Kalshi
Markets resolve based on whether Jamie Raskin utters specified exact phrases during the live broadcast of "All In with Chris Hayes" on October 6, 2026. Valid utterances must be part of the official, on-camera discussion and cannot include unaired segments, archival footage, or off-mic remarks. Resolution relies first on reviewing the live video broadcast; if inconclusive, official transcripts are used. If the program is canceled, all markets resolve as "Event does not qualify." Postponements within 14 days keep markets open. Each market corresponds to a unique keyword or phrase, with resolution contingent solely on its verbatim utterance during the qualified broadcast window.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals interesting insights into collective wisdom versus expert opinion. Often, this market reflects a broader range of potential statements than traditional polls or analyst predictions might consider. While analysts may focus on a few key themes, the market aggregates the views of many participants, potentially identifying less-discussed but plausible scenarios. It's important to remember that analysts offer reasoned arguments, while this market represents a probabilistic assessment based on actual trading activity. Both approaches offer valuable perspectives on what Jamie Raskin might say.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential statements from Jamie Raskin. The price of each contract reflects the market's assessment of the probability of that statement being made. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth, or the number of contracts available at different price points, indicates the level of confidence traders have in each outcome. Higher volume generally suggests greater agreement on the likelihood of a particular statement.
This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, following the conclusion of Jamie Raskin’s interview on All In with Chris Hayes. The outcome will be determined by a review of the official transcript or a reliable recording of the interview. The statement with the highest probability as reflected by the market price at the time of resolution will be considered the outcome. The outcome will be confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting, ensuring an objective and transparent resolution process.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any public statements made by Jamie Raskin prior to the interview, addressing topics likely to be discussed with Chris Hayes, could shift the odds. Major news events related to the topics Raskin frequently discusses—such as investigations, legislative actions, or political developments—would also likely cause movement. Increased media attention or speculation about the interview's focus could also drive trading activity. Finally, any perceived shift in the political landscape or public sentiment could influence traders’ assessments of the probability of different statements.
