TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 28, 10:29 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks whether specific keywords are mentioned during FedEx's upcoming earnings call. Participants can speculate on the likelihood of certain topics being discussed, such as strategic partnerships, financial metrics, or operational challenges.
Kalshi
The event determines if any of several specified terms—including China, Dividend, ServiceNow, Guidance, Inventory, E-commerce/Ecommerce, Labor, Automation, De Minimis, Tariff, EV/Electric Vehicle, Headwind, or Tailwind—are uttered by any FedEx Corporation representative during the live earnings call or its official broadcast, encompassing the Q+A session. Resolution relies primarily on video footage of the call; if video review fails to achieve consensus among Kalshi employees, official transcripts from designated news publications will be used instead. Payout hinges on the exact utterance of the target term, or any plural or possessive form thereof, with grammatical or tense variations excluded from eligibility. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any formal affiliation with FedEx, and all referenced trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinions. Often, this market reflects a broader range of factors than traditional analyst reports, incorporating information from various sources and perspectives. While analysts may focus on financial models and company statements, the prediction market can react more quickly to news events, social media sentiment, and other real-time data. Discrepancies between the two can highlight areas where the market anticipates surprises or where analysts may be over- or underestimating certain possibilities related to the FedEx earnings call.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential outcomes of the FedEx earnings call. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust dynamically, providing a real-time assessment of expectations. The market's efficiency stems from the incentive for traders to accurately predict the outcome, as profitable trades are rewarded and inaccurate predictions result in losses.
This market resolves around Nov 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the content of the FedEx earnings call is verifiable from credible public reporting. The specific statements made during the call will be reviewed to determine which outcomes align with the market's predictions. Resolution will focus on identifying whether key phrases or topics were mentioned, as defined by the market's contract specifications. Traders will then be paid out based on the accuracy of their predictions and the final outcome of the earnings call as it is publicly documented.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 11, 2026. Unexpected news regarding FedEx's financial performance, changes in the macroeconomic environment, or industry-specific developments could all influence trader sentiment. Furthermore, pre-earnings reports, analyst upgrades or downgrades, and even social media discussions about the company could trigger price fluctuations. Any information that alters expectations about the content of the earnings call – specifically what FedEx management will discuss – has the potential to shift the odds and create trading opportunities in this market.
