TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 8, 12:09 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
The Federal Reserve official will deliver economic outlook remarks at an international forum. Markets track whether he mentions specific economic concepts or topics during his prepared address, with resolution based on official transcripts or live broadcasts.
Kalshi
Multiple markets resolve based on whether Christopher Waller includes specific exact phrases during his official Economic Outlook remarks at the specified forum. Resolution relies primarily on live video broadcasts, with official transcripts used as a fallback if video consensus cannot be reached. All markets share identical verification processes and cancellation/postponement rules: definitive cancellation or qualification failure triggers the "Event does not qualify" market to Yes and all others to No; postponements announced within one calendar day for rescheduling within 14 days keep markets open. Markets do not count grammatical variations, unaired content, or off-mic comments, requiring Waller to use the exact target phrase in an official capacity during the live event.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's important to note that this market represents a distinct view of potential outcomes compared to traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer predictions on the content of Governor Waller’s remarks, this market reflects the collective judgment of traders willing to put capital behind their beliefs. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, information access, and the incentive structure inherent in prediction markets, where participants are financially motivated to accurately assess probabilities. This provides a unique perspective on expectations surrounding the speech.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing different possible outcomes of Governor Waller’s remarks. The price of each contract reflects the market’s implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices will adjust accordingly, providing a real-time assessment of expectations. The current top outcome is not available, and the chance percent is not available.
This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on a review of Governor Waller’s official remarks as published by the Federal Reserve. The specific details of what constitutes a 'mention' of various topics will be determined by the platform's rules, ensuring a fair and transparent process. Traders should review the full terms and conditions on Kalshi for complete details regarding resolution.
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Any official statements or hints from the Federal Reserve regarding Governor Waller’s prepared remarks would likely cause price fluctuations. Unexpected economic data releases prior to the speech, such as inflation or employment figures, could also shift expectations and influence trading activity. Furthermore, broader market sentiment and geopolitical events could indirectly affect the market as traders adjust their risk appetite. Close attention to economic calendars and Fed communications is advisable.
