TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 6, 12:15 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
The event involves monitoring a keynote speech by a federal government official at a banking conference. Markets will resolve based on whether specific financial or economic terms are mentioned during the live address, using video or transcript verification.
Kalshi
Multiple markets are contingent on Michelle Bowman mentioning specific phrases during her keynote at the 2026 Community Banking Research Conference. Each market defines a unique phrase or set of phrases (e.g., "Leverage Ratio," "AI," "Recession") that, if uttered in an official capacity during the live broadcast on October 6, 2026, will result in that market resolving to Yes. Verification relies primarily on live video; if inconclusive, official transcripts are used. If the event is canceled, the "Event does not qualify" market resolves to Yes, and all others to No. Postponements within 14 days keep markets open. Phrases must appear exactly as specified, excluding grammatical variations or informal contexts. Presence on camera alone, without audible mention, does not trigger payout. All markets share these resolution and verification procedures.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it’s important to compare the predictions reflected in this market to those made by financial analysts and polling data regarding expectations for Governor Bowman’s remarks. Are analysts anticipating a hawkish or dovish tone? Does the market agree? Discrepancies between the market’s implied probabilities and external forecasts can signal potential opportunities for informed traders. This market provides a unique, forward-looking perspective that differs from traditional backward-looking analysis, and may reveal insights not immediately apparent in conventional reporting.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different possible outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, these prices will fluctuate, providing a dynamic and real-time forecast of what Governor Bowman might discuss. The current prices are driven by supply and demand, with buyers increasing prices and sellers decreasing them.
This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on a review of Governor Bowman’s official transcript and video recording of her Community Banking Research keynote address. The market will determine which statements were made, and the outcome will be determined by whether specific keywords or phrases were used, as defined in the market’s specifications. The resolution process aims to provide a clear and objective determination of the market’s outcome.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before it resolves. Any official statements from the Federal Reserve regarding Governor Bowman’s planned remarks, or leaks about the content of her speech, would likely cause price fluctuations. Broader economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment figures, could also shift expectations about the Fed’s monetary policy and, consequently, Governor Bowman’s tone. Unexpected geopolitical events or shifts in financial market sentiment could also influence trading activity in this market.
