TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$333,432,169

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,971,286,090

419,492

Markets across

40,634

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,654

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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What will Elon post this week? (October 19 - October 25)
polymarket

What will Elon post by October 26?

Volume:
$1,240

Roadster

 - Polymarket

Roadster - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 26, 2026

Closed: Oct 24, 12:08 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Roadster

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$400
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Genius

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$154
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

SpaceX

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$98
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Tesla

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$72
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Rocket

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$211
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$77
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

James Bond

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$73
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Flying Car

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$42
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Legal

View
0%
79%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$37
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Evel Knievel

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$37
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Canyon

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$37
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if @elonmusk posts the listed term between October 19, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For the purposes of this market, all text posted by the listed account in quote and reply posts count toward a "Yes" resolution, but quoted posts and reposts will not count. Text posted in images, memes, or other non-animated, non-video media that are not strictly text will qualify towards a "Yes" resolution only if the listed term is spelled out clearly and in full. (e.g., words spelled out in a letter posted as a .jpg will qualify, however a word posted as part of an animated .gif will not.) Any plural or possessive forms of a listed term, as well as variance in capitalizations, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will NOT count. Extraneous symbols being inserted into a word (ex: r@d1cal, for "radical") will disqualify it from counting toward a "Yes" resolution. Sigils at the beginnings of words, such as hashtags, "@" symbols, or denotations of currency, will not disqualify a term from counting towards a "Yes" resolution. Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all grammatical or slang forms, or misspellings with extra, missing, or incorrect letters (ex: helloooooooo or heoll, for ‘hello’), will not count toward a “Yes” resolution, regardless of context or intent. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). The resolution source for this market will be Elon Musk's verified X account: @elonmusk Please note, only the @elonmusk verified X account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile. If Elon Musk posts from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if @elonmusk posts the listed term between October 19, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For the purposes of this market, all text posted by the listed account in quote and reply posts count toward a "Yes" resolution, but quoted posts and reposts will not count. Text posted in images, memes, or other non-animated, non-video media that are not strictly text will qualify towards a "Yes" resolution only if the listed term is spelled out clearly and in full. (e.g., words spelled out in a letter posted as a .jpg will qualify, however a word posted as part of an animated .gif will not.) Any plural or possessive forms of a listed term, as well as variance in capitalizations, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will NOT count. Extraneous symbols being inserted into a word (ex: r@d1cal, for "radical") will disqualify it from counting toward a "Yes" resolution. Sigils at the beginnings of words, such as hashtags, "@" symbols, or denotations of currency, will not disqualify a term from counting towards a "Yes" resolution. Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all grammatical or slang forms, or misspellings with extra, missing, or incorrect letters (ex: helloooooooo or heoll, for ‘hello’), will not count toward a “Yes” resolution, regardless of context or intent. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). The resolution source for this market will be Elon Musk's verified X account: @elonmusk Please note, only the @elonmusk verified X account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile. If Elon Musk posts from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the Elon Musk posting market dashboard provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likelihood of various outcomes regarding Elon Musk's activity on social media this week. You can see the current odds for each potential subject of his posts, the total volume traded – currently at $1,240 – and the 24-hour volume, which is $230. The dashboard also displays a price history chart, allowing you to track how sentiment has shifted over time as new information emerges. This is a dynamic view of collective prediction.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a unique perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts regarding Elon Musk’s potential posts. While analysts often rely on qualitative assessments and past behavior, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, reflecting a diverse range of opinions and information. It’s important to note that analysts may focus on long-term trends, whereas this market concentrates on a specific timeframe – October 19 to October 25. Discrepancies between the two can highlight areas where the market perceives information differently than conventional wisdom.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in each possible outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective assessment of the group. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price movements are driven by new information, speculation, and shifts in sentiment regarding Elon Musk’s likely actions this week, with volume playing a key role in price discovery.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the content of Elon Musk’s posts between October 19 and October 25 is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on a determination of the primary subject matter of his posts during that period. The outcome will be determined by assessing the most frequent or significant topic covered in his X (formerly Twitter) posts during the specified timeframe, as determined by the platform’s process.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Unexpected news regarding Tesla, SpaceX, or other ventures led by Elon Musk would likely cause shifts in trading activity. Major announcements or controversies involving him personally could also have a substantial impact. Additionally, any direct statements from Musk hinting at his posting intentions, or significant trends emerging on social media related to topics he frequently addresses, could influence the odds. Increased volume in this market, particularly leading up to Oct 26, 2026, would also indicate heightened interest and potential price volatility.