TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 29, 3:07 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
During its upcoming earnings call, Eli Lilly will discuss financial performance and strategic directions. Investors and analysts will be listening closely to gauge the company's outlook and key initiatives.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on whether specific designated terms are uttered by any Eli Lilly representative during the live earnings call or its official broadcast, including Q+A sessions. Verification uses video footage primarily, with transcripts from news publications as a fallback if video consensus cannot be reached. Payouts consider exact phrase matches, including plural or possessive forms, but exclude grammatical or tense variations. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with Eli Lilly, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds reflect a collective forecast of what will be discussed on the Eli Lilly earnings call. These odds are determined by traders buying and selling contracts, representing their beliefs about the likelihood of specific mentions. This differs from traditional analyst forecasts, which are typically based on modeling and individual research. It’s possible to see divergences between what analysts predict and what this market suggests, offering a unique perspective on potential topics. Examining both can provide a more comprehensive understanding of expectations.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders set the odds by placing buy and sell orders. The price of a contract reflects the probability of the corresponding outcome occurring – in this case, a specific statement being made during the Eli Lilly earnings call. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market adjusts dynamically as traders react to new information and refine their predictions, leading to a constantly updated assessment of probabilities. The current volume indicates the level of interest and conviction surrounding different potential statements.
This market resolves around Nov 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on a review of the official transcript of the Eli Lilly earnings call to determine whether the statements in question were actually made. The market will then settle to 100 for contracts corresponding to statements that were mentioned and 0 for those that were not. Traders should monitor news coverage following the call for updates on the resolution process.
Several signals could significantly move this market before Nov 12, 2026. Any pre-earnings announcements from Eli Lilly, such as press releases or investor presentations, could shift expectations. Analyst upgrades or downgrades of the stock could also influence trading activity. Furthermore, broader market trends in the pharmaceutical sector or news related to specific drugs in Eli Lilly’s pipeline could impact sentiment. Finally, any leaks or rumors regarding the content of the earnings call itself would likely cause substantial price movements in this market.
