TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.1b
24H VOL:
$172,394,893
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,983,476,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,821,572,886
404,136
Markets across
40,075
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,369
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 28, 10:25 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
During its upcoming earnings call, eBay will discuss financial performance and strategic initiatives. Market participants are tracking whether specific topics or partner names will be mentioned, reflecting potential areas of focus or collaboration for the company.
Kalshi
The event centers on whether specific designated terms are uttered by any eBay representative during the live earnings call or its official broadcast, including any Q+A session scheduled for October 28, 2026. Each market defines a unique term; resolution occurs if that exact term (or its plural/possessive form) is spoken. Payout hinges solely on verbal mention, disregarding grammatical or tense variations. Resolution relies first on video review by Kalshi employees; if consensus isn’t reached, published transcripts from designated news sources will be consulted. eBay, through its representatives, operates independently of Kalshi, which disclaims any official affiliation. All referenced trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts rely on financial modeling and company reports, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential insights. This can lead to discrepancies between the probabilities implied by Kalshi’s prices and those suggested by Wall Street estimates. It's common to see prediction markets outperform analyst consensus, particularly when anticipating unexpected announcements or shifts in company strategy during the eBay earnings call.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of a specific statement being made during the eBay earnings call. As more traders buy a contract, its price increases, reflecting a higher perceived probability. Conversely, selling pressure lowers the price. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The prices on Kalshi are determined solely by supply and demand among traders, and represent their collective belief about the likelihood of each outcome. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for real-time adjustments based on new information and changing sentiment.
This market resolves around Nov 11, 2026, following the conclusion of eBay’s next earnings call. The outcome will be determined by a review of the official transcript of the earnings call, and verified against credible public reporting. The market will settle to 100 for any statement confirmed to have been made during the call, and 0 for any statement not made. Traders should monitor the official release of the earnings call transcript to understand the final resolution of this market.
Several signals could significantly impact this market before Nov 11, 2026. Any pre-earnings announcements from eBay regarding expected performance, strategic shifts, or potential challenges could shift trader sentiment. Analyst upgrades or downgrades of eBay stock, as well as broader economic news impacting the retail sector, could also influence prices. Unexpected news related to key competitors or changes in consumer spending habits could also move this market. Ultimately, any information that alters perceptions of eBay’s likely messaging during the earnings call has the potential to create price movement.
