TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 28, 10:09 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks whether Dan Sullivan will mention specific topics during a scheduled Fox News: Hannity broadcast. The outcome depends on whether certain exact phrases are spoken by Sullivan in an official capacity during the live show.
Kalshi
The event resolves based on whether Dan Sullivan utters any of the specified phrases during the Fox News: Hannity broadcast scheduled for October 28, 2026. Each market corresponds to a different phrase, and the market resolves to Yes if Sullivan says that exact phrase (or its plural/possessive form) in an official capacity during the live broadcast. Resolution relies primarily on video footage of the show; if video consensus cannot be reached, official transcripts are used. Grammatical variations, unaired content, and off-mic comments do not count. If the broadcast is canceled, the "Event does not qualify" market resolves to Yes, and all others resolve to No. If postponed within 14 days, markets remain open.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional analyst forecasts, as those are not focused on specific statements. However, prediction markets often aggregate diverse information and viewpoints, potentially offering a more nuanced view than individual expert opinions. If analysts were to predict the likelihood of certain topics being raised, a comparison could be made to see if this market reflects similar expectations. The collective wisdom of traders here may reveal insights that differ from, or align with, conventional political analysis regarding the Dan Sullivan Fox News interview.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing potential outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's current assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate and new information emerges, these prices will adjust accordingly. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The platform uses a mechanism to ensure fair price discovery and prevent manipulation, with prices determined solely by supply and demand from market participants. This allows for a real-time assessment of expectations surrounding the Dan Sullivan Fox News interview.
This market resolves around Nov 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on a transcript of the interview with Dan Sullivan on Fox News: Hannity. The market will determine which statements were made during the program, and the outcome will be verified against credible public sources to ensure accuracy. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their predicted outcomes occurred as documented in the official transcript of the interview.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any pre-interview statements made by Senator Sullivan or hints about the topics he intends to address would likely cause shifts in trading activity. Major news events occurring before the interview, particularly those related to the issues he typically discusses, could also influence the market. Furthermore, the political climate and any recent developments affecting his party or policy positions could play a role. Increased media attention surrounding the interview itself, or changes in public sentiment, could also drive volume and price movements in this market.
