TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 11:10 PM EST
Kalshi
Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional
Description
This event tracks whether specific political and policy-related terms are mentioned by Cory Booker during a televised interview. The focus is on capturing explicit verbal references during the broadcast, with resolution based on verified audio or transcript evidence.
Kalshi
Multiple markets exist under this event, each corresponding to a different potential phrase that Cory Booker might utter during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell scheduled for October 5, 2026. Each market resolves to Yes if Booker utters the exact phrase or any of its allowed variants (including plural or possessive forms) during the live broadcast in an official capacity. Resolution relies primarily on video footage from the live broadcast or stream, with official or internal transcripts used as a fallback if video consensus cannot be reached. Certain conditions invalidate payouts, such as grammatical variations, off-mic comments, archival footage, or unaired content. If the episode is definitively canceled, the "Event does not qualify" market resolves to Yes, closing all others. Postponements within 14 days keep markets open. All markets require explicit, audible use of the targeted terminology during the designated broadcast to qualify.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinion. While analysts often provide pre-event assessments based on research and understanding of Senator Booker’s past statements, this market reflects the wisdom of the crowd, continuously updated as new information emerges. Discrepancies can arise from differing interpretations of political dynamics, unexpected developments, or simply the aggregate effect of many individual perspectives. It's important to note that this market focuses solely on what Senator Booker will *say* during the interview, mirroring the specific question posed to analysts and pollsters when assessing pre-event expectations.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential statements by Senator Booker. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that statement being made, as determined by supply and demand. As more traders believe a particular statement is likely, its price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities accordingly, offering a forward-looking assessment of the event’s potential outcomes. The current market reflects the aggregated beliefs of all participants.
This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, following the conclusion of Senator Cory Booker’s scheduled appearance on The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell. The outcome will be determined by a review of the official broadcast transcript or a reliable recording of the interview. The market will settle based on whether each potential statement was demonstrably made by Senator Booker during the program. The outcome will be confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting, providing a clear and objective determination of which statements were actually uttered during the interview.
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market before its resolution. Any public statements made by Senator Booker leading up to the interview, particularly those hinting at his intended focus, could shift probabilities. Major news events or political developments occurring before the broadcast might also influence trader sentiment, as they could alter the context of the discussion. Furthermore, the release of interview previews or teasers could provide clues about the topics Senator Booker will address, causing fluctuations in the market. Unexpected scheduling changes or cancellations could also affect trading activity in this market.
