TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 27, 2:04 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks whether Clay Magouyrk will mention specific technology and business topics during his keynote address at Oracle AI World. The focus is on identifying exact phrase usage during the live presentation, with resolution based on official broadcasts or transcripts.
Kalshi
The event resolves based on whether Clay Magouyrk utters any of the specified phrases during his Oracle AI World keynote. Each market corresponds to a unique phrase or term, and resolution depends on verifying exact wording from official video broadcasts or transcripts. If the event is canceled, the "Event does not qualify" market wins; postponements within 14 days keep markets open. All markets require precise phrase matching during the official address, excluding offhand remarks or unrelated content.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinion. While analysts often provide pre-event predictions based on research and expertise, this market reflects the wisdom of the crowd, aggregating diverse perspectives and real-time information. Discrepancies can emerge if traders possess unique insights or anticipate unforeseen developments. If analysts widely expect a specific topic to be covered, but the market assigns a lower probability, it suggests traders believe other areas will take precedence during the Oracle AI keynote. This dynamic interplay between expert analysis and market sentiment is a key feature of predictive markets.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential statements from Clay Magouyrk’s keynote. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that statement being made, as determined by supply and demand. As more traders buy a contract, its price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth shows the available liquidity at different price points, allowing traders to assess the cost of entering or exiting a position. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market efficiently reflects the collective beliefs of participants.
This market resolves around Nov 10, 2026, following the conclusion of Clay Magouyrk’s Oracle AI World keynote address. The outcome will be determined by a review of the official transcript or video recording of the keynote, verifying whether each statement was explicitly made by Magouyrk. The resolution will be based on direct quotes and will not consider paraphrasing or implied statements. The outcome will be confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting, ensuring a transparent and objective resolution process for this market.
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market before Nov 10, 2026. Any pre-keynote interviews or statements made by Clay Magouyrk himself would be a major catalyst, potentially shifting probabilities based on revealed intentions. Official announcements from Oracle regarding the keynote’s focus or agenda could also drive price movements. Unexpected news related to Oracle’s AI strategy or the broader tech landscape could influence trader sentiment. Finally, leaks or rumors, even if unconfirmed, could temporarily affect trading activity and contract prices within this market.
