TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 13, 1:11 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
The event tracks whether specific financial and operational terms are mentioned during Citigroup's upcoming earnings call. Participants can speculate on the likelihood of certain keywords being discussed, reflecting potential topics of interest to investors and analysts.
Kalshi
The event evaluates whether any of the specified terms—Hormuz / Iran, Tariff, Basel 3, Dividend, Banamex, FICO, Credit Card, Headwind, Inflation, Tailwind, Headcount, Buyback / Buy Back, Recession, or Custody—are uttered by any Citigroup Inc. representative, including the call operator, during the next earnings call, encompassing both the prepared remarks and the Q+A session. Resolution relies primarily on video footage of the call; if internal consensus cannot be achieved, transcripts from designated news publications will be referenced. Payout hinges on the exact utterance of the term, or its plural/possessive form, with grammatical or tense variations excluded from eligibility. Kalshi clarifies no official affiliation with Citigroup, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts provide opinions based on models and research, this market reflects the collective judgment of a diverse group of traders who are putting their capital at risk. This can lead to a more accurate prediction, as traders are incentivized to be correct. It's common to see discrepancies between analyst expectations and the implied probabilities within this market, especially when unforeseen factors come into play. Examining these differences can be insightful for anyone following Citigroup.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether a specific statement will be made during the Citigroup earnings call. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices will adjust accordingly, providing a dynamic assessment of expectations. The market’s depth and volume indicate the level of confidence traders have in their predictions.
This market resolves around Mar 31, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the transcript of the Citigroup earnings call is publicly available and the statements made during the call can be verified against credible public reporting. The market will determine which statements were actually mentioned by Citigroup executives during the call. The resolution process relies on a clear record of the earnings call, ensuring a transparent and objective outcome. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their predictions aligned with the actual events.
Several signals could significantly impact this market before Mar 31, 2027. Any news regarding Citigroup’s financial performance, unexpected announcements from company leadership, or broader economic trends could shift trader sentiment. Analyst upgrades or downgrades of Citigroup stock, as well as major shifts in the banking sector, are also likely to influence the odds. Furthermore, leaks or rumors about the content of the earnings call itself could cause substantial movement in this market, as traders react to potentially new information. Monitoring these factors is key to understanding market dynamics.
