TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 11:40 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
The event involves monitoring a televised political discussion to determine whether a specific individual mentions certain predefined topics during their appearance. Outcomes depend strictly on the verbal content delivered during the broadcast, with clear guidelines for verification and resolution.
Kalshi
The event resolves based on whether Chris Wright utters any of the specified phrases during the Face the Nation broadcast scheduled for October 4, 2026. Each market corresponds to a unique phrase or set of phrases (e.g., "Oil / Gas / Gasoline", "Iran / Iranian"). If Wright says the exact phrase—or any plural/possessive form of it—during the live broadcast, the respective market resolves to Yes. The resolution relies primarily on video footage from the live broadcast or stream; if video consensus cannot be reached, official transcripts are used. Grammatical variations, unaired content, and off-mic remarks do not count. If the broadcast is canceled, the "Event does not qualify" market resolves to Yes, and all others to No. Postponements within 14 days keep markets open. All markets require Wright to speak in an official capacity for the phrase to count.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals interesting insights into collective wisdom versus expert opinion. While analysts provide informed predictions based on their expertise, this market aggregates the views of many individuals, creating a diverse perspective. Often, the market’s implied probabilities will differ from initial analyst expectations, potentially reflecting information not yet fully incorporated into traditional forecasts. It’s important to remember that both approaches have their strengths and weaknesses, and observing the differences can be valuable.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s current assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective intelligence of the crowd. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The prices are dynamic and change constantly based on supply and demand, offering a real-time view of expectations surrounding the Chris Wright interview.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on a review of the full transcript and video recording of Chris Wright’s interview on Face the Nation to determine which statements were actually made. The market will settle to 100 for the outcome that accurately reflects the content of the interview, and 0 for all other outcomes. The focus is on objectively verifying the statements made during the broadcast.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before resolution. Any pre-interview statements made by Chris Wright, or leaks regarding the planned topics of discussion, could influence trader behavior. News coverage analyzing his past statements or political positions might also shift probabilities. Unexpected developments related to the issues likely to be discussed on Face the Nation could also cause price fluctuations. Ultimately, any information that alters perceptions of what Chris Wright will say has the potential to impact this market.
