TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 28, 10:42 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
During its upcoming earnings call, Carvana may discuss various operational, strategic, or external topics relevant to its business. Investors and analysts often focus on whether specific key terms are mentioned, as these can signal priorities, challenges, or opportunities for the company.
Kalshi
The event evaluates whether any Carvana representative, including the operator of the call, utters any of the specified terms during the next earnings call scheduled for October 28, 2026, including any Q+A session. Each market corresponds to a unique term or phrase (e.g., Tariff, AI, Acquisition). If the exact word, its plural form, or its possessive form is spoken at any point during the call, the respective market resolves to Yes. Resolution relies primarily on video footage of the call; if video consensus cannot be reached by Kalshi employees, official transcripts from designated news publications will be used. Grammatical or tense variations do not qualify for payout. Kalshi disclaims any formal affiliation with Carvana, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds reflect the collective wisdom of traders on Kalshi, and often provide a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts for the Carvana earnings call. While analysts may offer specific revenue or profit projections, this market focuses on the language used by Carvana executives. It's possible that traders anticipate certain themes or keywords being emphasized, even if those aren't directly reflected in quantitative analyst estimates. This difference in focus can lead to notable divergences in expectations.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders submit buy and sell orders for contracts representing different outcomes related to the Carvana earnings call. The prices of these contracts fluctuate based on supply and demand, reflecting the evolving beliefs of market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price of a contract indicates the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market. Higher volume generally indicates greater confidence in the price.
This market resolves around Nov 11, 2026, following the conclusion of Carvana’s next earnings call. The outcome will be determined by a review of the official transcript of the call, and verified against credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will assess whether certain phrases or topics were mentioned by Carvana executives during the call, as defined by the market contracts. The resolution process aims to provide a clear and objective determination based on publicly available information.
Several signals could significantly impact this market before Nov 11, 2026. Any pre-earnings news about Carvana’s financial performance, such as preliminary revenue figures or guidance revisions, would likely cause price movements. Additionally, broader economic indicators or industry trends affecting the automotive retail sector could influence trader sentiment. Finally, unexpected announcements or statements from Carvana management prior to the earnings call itself could also shift the probabilities reflected in this market.
