TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 26, 7:39 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This market tracks whether Bernie Sanders will mention specific topics during a student town hall, focusing on issues relevant to young voters and current political discourse. The resolution depends on the exact wording used during the live event.
Kalshi
The markets resolve based on whether Bernie Sanders utters specified exact phrases during the Students vs. Billionaires student town hall in Ann Arbor, Michigan. Each market has precise payout criteria requiring the exact word or phrase, or its plural/possessive form, to be spoken by Sanders in an official capacity during the live event. Markets will use video broadcasts or official transcripts for verification. Markets resolve to Yes if the specified term is used; otherwise, they resolve to No. If the event is canceled, the "Event does not qualify" market resolves to Yes, and all others resolve to No. Postponements within 14 days keep markets open. Private conversations, archival footage, or off-mic statements do not count.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals interesting insights into collective wisdom versus expert opinion. Often, this market demonstrates an ability to synthesize information from a wide range of sources, potentially outperforming individual analyst predictions. While analysts may focus on specific factors, the market reflects the aggregated beliefs of many participants, incorporating diverse perspectives. It’s important to note that analysts and market participants may weigh different information, leading to discrepancies in their outlooks for what Senator Sanders will discuss.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction mechanism, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential statements from Senator Sanders. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that statement being made. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust, providing a real-time indication of sentiment. The market’s depth—the volume of buy and sell orders at different price levels—also influences price movements and demonstrates the strength of conviction behind various predictions.
This market resolves around Nov 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will determine which statements Senator Sanders made during the town hall in Michigan. Resolution will be based on a transcript or reliable recording of the event, ensuring accuracy and objectivity. The outcome will be determined by whether or not each statement was demonstrably uttered by Senator Sanders during the event, as verified against credible public sources.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before it resolves. Any pre-town hall statements made by Senator Sanders, or by his campaign team, regarding the topics he intends to address could influence trading activity. Unexpected news events occurring in Michigan, or nationally, that are likely to be addressed by Senator Sanders could also shift the market. Finally, any polling data released before the event that suggests a change in voter sentiment on key issues could impact the perceived likelihood of certain statements being made during the town hall.
