TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 26, 2:49 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks whether Bernie Sanders will mention specific topics during a speech in Alpena, Michigan. The focus is on identifying particular keywords or phrases related to political, economic, and social issues. The outcome depends on the exact wording used during the official remarks.
Kalshi
The event evaluates multiple potential keywords that Bernie Sanders might mention during his remarks in Alpena, Michigan. Each keyword or phrase, such as "Billionaire," "Corrupt," or "Climate," has a corresponding market that resolves to Yes if Sanders uses the exact term, its plural, or possessive form during the speech. Official video broadcasts or transcripts serve as the primary evidence for verification. If the event is canceled or postponed beyond the specified window, the "Event does not qualify" market resolves to Yes, and all others resolve to No. The resolution relies on verifying the precise use of designated terms within the context of the official address, excluding unaired content or off-mic remarks.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence stacks up against expert opinion. While analysts often provide pre-event predictions based on research and understanding of Senator Sanders’ past statements, this market reflects the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a broader range of information and perspectives. Discrepancies between the two can highlight areas where the market anticipates surprises or where analysts may be underestimating or overestimating the likelihood of certain topics being addressed. It’s a dynamic comparison, as both forecasts and market prices evolve as new information emerges.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of different statements being made. The price of each contract reflects the current market consensus on its likelihood. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect new information and changing expectations. The market’s depth—indicated by the bid and ask sizes—shows how readily traders are willing to buy or sell at different price points. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a constantly updated assessment of the potential content of Senator Sanders’ remarks.
This market resolves around Nov 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on a transcript or reliable recording of Senator Sanders’ remarks in Alpena, Michigan. The market will determine which statements were actually made during the speech, and the outcome will be based on that verified record. The market’s resolution is not dependent on subjective interpretation, but on objective evidence from the event itself.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before resolution. Any breaking news related to Senator Sanders’ policy positions, or a shift in his recent messaging, would likely impact trading activity. Furthermore, statements from his campaign team or close advisors regarding the focus of his Alpena speech could also cause price fluctuations. Unexpected economic data releases or political developments in Michigan might also influence traders’ perceptions of what topics he’ll prioritize. Finally, any pre-speech interviews or public appearances could offer clues and drive changes in the probabilities reflected in this market.
