TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 2:29 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks whether Bernie Sanders will mention specific topics or phrases during a scheduled rally, focusing on key issues and names relevant to current events and public discourse.
Kalshi
The event evaluates multiple potential phrases that Bernie Sanders might utter during a specific rally. Each phrase represents a distinct market outcome, resolving to Yes if the exact phrase (or its plural/possessive form) is spoken by Sanders in an official capacity during the event. Resolution relies primarily on live video broadcast or stream, with official transcripts used as a secondary source if video consensus cannot be reached. Phrases must be spoken verbatim; grammatical variations or mere presence on camera do not qualify. If the rally is canceled or fails to meet qualification criteria, the "Event does not qualify" market resolves to Yes, nullifying all others. Postponements within 14 days keep markets open. All markets depend on verified, event-specific audio-visual evidence.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds reflect a collective assessment of the likelihood of different statements being made at the rally. This differs from analyst forecasts, which are typically based on individual expert opinions and historical data. While analysts may predict certain themes will be present, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, potentially identifying overlooked possibilities or adjusting rapidly to new information. It's important to remember that both approaches have their strengths and weaknesses, and discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies and biases. This market provides a dynamic, data-driven perspective.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing each possible outcome. The price of each contract reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective belief of the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth—the number of contracts available at different price points—indicates the level of agreement or disagreement among traders regarding each statement. Higher volume generally suggests greater confidence in a particular outcome.
This market resolves around Nov 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on a transcript or reliable recording of Senator Sanders’ remarks during the Wisconsin rally. The market will determine which of the listed statements were actually uttered by the candidate. Resolution will focus on direct quotes and substantial paraphrasing, ensuring accuracy and fairness in reflecting the content of his speech. The outcome will be determined by assessing the complete record of his remarks.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any pre-rally statements from Senator Sanders or his campaign team regarding the intended focus of the speech could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected news events or political developments in Wisconsin or nationally might also influence expectations about his messaging. Furthermore, the release of polling data related to key issues in Wisconsin could lead traders to reassess the likelihood of certain statements being made. Finally, media coverage and analysis leading up to the rally could also contribute to price movements in this market.
