TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$238,896,186
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,985,204,718
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,897,934,485
408,127
Markets across
39,552
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,429
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 19, 9:39 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks whether Bernie Sanders will mention specific topics or phrases during a political rally, focusing on key themes and names relevant to current debates. The outcome depends on the exact wording used during the live address, verified through official broadcasts or transcripts.
Kalshi
The event evaluates numerous potential phrases that Bernie Sanders might utter during his scheduled rally. Each phrase represents a separate market outcome, resolved by reviewing live video broadcasts or official transcripts to confirm exact wording. Markets will resolve to 'Yes' only if the precise phrase (including plural or possessive forms where specified) is spoken by Sanders in an official capacity during the rally. Grammatical variations, unaired conversations, and content from other events do not count. If the rally is canceled, the 'Event does not qualify' market resolves to 'Yes,' closing all others. Postponements within 14 days keep markets open. Resolution relies on consensus from video evidence or transcripts when needed.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional analyst forecasts, as those forecasts are not yet widely available for specific statements within a political speech. However, prediction markets often aggregate information from a diverse range of sources, potentially reflecting insights that aren't immediately captured by conventional polling or expert opinions. This market provides a forward-looking assessment of the likelihood of different statements, while analyst forecasts typically offer retrospective analysis or predictions based on established trends. It will be interesting to see how this market evolves as the rally approaches.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on a transcript or reliable recording of Senator Sanders’ remarks during the El Paso rally. The outcome will be determined by whether or not each statement included in the market was demonstrably uttered by Senator Sanders during the event. The market will settle based on this objective verification, providing a clear and transparent result for all participants.
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Any official statements released by Senator Sanders’ campaign regarding the themes or specific points he intends to address in El Paso would be a major catalyst. Unexpected news events, political developments, or shifts in public opinion surrounding the issues Senator Sanders typically discusses could also influence trading activity. Furthermore, any changes to the rally’s schedule or location could introduce uncertainty and volatility into this market. Increased media coverage or attention focused on the rally could also drive volume and price movements.
