TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$244,077,041
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,985,204,718
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,901,278,909
407,043
Markets across
39,548
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,422
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 20, 7:50 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks specific phrases that Bernie Sanders might use during a political rally, focusing on topics relevant to his policy positions and public discourse. The outcome depends on whether he mentions certain keywords or concepts during his speech. Markets resolve based on verified recordings or transcripts from the event.
Kalshi
If Bernie Sanders says Billionaire (5+ times) as part of Fighting Oligarchy: Get Out the Vote rally in Amarillo originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes. If Bernie Sanders says Elon / Musk as part of Fighting Oligarchy: Get Out the Vote rally in Amarillo originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes. If Bernie Sanders says Working Class as part of Fighting Oligarchy: Get Out the Vote rally in Amarillo originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes. If Bernie Sanders says Trump (5+ times) as part of Fighting Oligarchy: Get Out the Vote rally in Amarillo originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes. If Bernie Sanders says Tax Break as part of Fighting Oligarchy: Get Out the Vote rally in Amarillo originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes. If Bernie Sanders says AI / Artificial Intelligence as part of Fighting Oligarchy: Get Out the Vote rally in Amarillo originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes. If Bernie Sanders says Iran / Iranian as part of Fighting Oligarchy: Get Out the Vote rally in Amarillo originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes. If Bernie Sanders says Oil / Gas / Gasoline as part of Fighting Oligarchy: Get Out the Vote rally in Amarillo originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes. If Bernie Sanders says Corrupt / Corruption as part of Fighting Oligarchy: Get Out the Vote rally in Amarillo originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes. If Bernie Sanders says Midterm as part of Fighting Oligarchy: Get Out the Vote rally in Amarillo originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes. If Bernie Sanders says Israel / Netanyahu as part of Fighting Oligarchy: Get Out the Vote rally in Amarillo originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes. If Bernie Sanders says Robot / Robotic / Robotics as part of Fighting Oligarchy: Get Out the Vote rally in Amarillo originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes. If Bernie Sanders says Zohran / Mamdani as part of Fighting Oligarchy: Get Out the Vote rally in Amarillo originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes. If Bernie Sanders says Social Security as part of Fighting Oligarchy: Get Out the Vote rally in Amarillo originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes. If Bernie Sanders says Climate as part of Fighting Oligarchy: Get Out the Vote rally in Amarillo originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes. If Bernie Sanders says Immigrant / Immigration as part of Fighting Oligarchy: Get Out the Vote rally in Amarillo originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes. If Bernie Sanders says Zillion / Zillionaire as part of Fighting Oligarchy: Get Out the Vote rally in Amarillo originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes. If Bernie Sanders says Socialist / Socialism as part of Fighting Oligarchy: Get Out the Vote rally in Amarillo originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes. If Bernie Sanders says Data Center as part of Fighting Oligarchy: Get Out the Vote rally in Amarillo originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes. If Bernie Sanders says Bernie as part of Fighting Oligarchy: Get Out the Vote rally in Amarillo originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes. If Bernie Sanders says Farm / Farmer as part of Fighting Oligarchy: Get Out the Vote rally in Amarillo originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes. If Bernie Sanders says China / Chinese as part of Fighting Oligarchy: Get Out the Vote rally in Amarillo originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes. If Bernie Sanders says Trillionaire as part of Fighting Oligarchy: Get Out the Vote rally in Amarillo originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes. If Bernie Sanders says ChatGPT / OpenAI as part of Fighting Oligarchy: Get Out the Vote rally in Amarillo originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes. If a qualifying event does not occur , then the market resolves to Yes.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective wisdom differs from expert opinion. Currently, this market reflects what traders believe is most likely to be said during the rally, based on their own research and insights. This can sometimes align with, or diverge from, what political analysts are predicting. It’s important to remember that analysts often base their forecasts on traditional polling data and expert judgment, while this market incorporates a wider range of information and real-time sentiment. The dynamic nature of this market provides a unique perspective on potential rally content.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of each statement being made. As more people buy a contract, the price increases, reflecting a higher perceived probability. Conversely, selling pressure drives the price down. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each contract represents the cost to insure against that statement being made, and the market aggregates these individual trades to create an overall probability assessment. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on a transcript or reliable recording of Senator Sanders’ remarks during the Amarillo rally. The market will determine which statements were actually made, and the outcome will be based on that verified record. The outcome will be determined by whether the statement was demonstrably uttered during the rally, and will not consider nuances of phrasing or context beyond the core statement.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Any breaking news related to Senator Sanders’ planned remarks, such as leaked excerpts or statements from his campaign, would likely cause price fluctuations. Shifts in public opinion, as reflected in polls or social media sentiment, could also influence trading activity. Furthermore, any major political developments or unexpected events leading up to the rally could alter the perceived likelihood of certain statements being made. Finally, the release of the rally schedule or a detailed agenda could provide clues and impact the probabilities reflected in this market.
