TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$260,393,102
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,894,304,386
408,643
Markets across
39,771
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,493
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 10:50 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks specific phrases that Bernie Sanders might use during a scheduled rally, focusing on topics ranging from economic inequality to political figures. The outcome depends on whether he utters any of the predefined keywords during his official speech.
Kalshi
The event evaluates whether Bernie Sanders utters any of 22 specified phrases during his "Fighting Oligarchy: Where We Go From Here" rally scheduled for October 4, 2026. Each phrase represents a distinct theme, such as economic terms, political names, or policy topics. Resolution relies on reviewing the rally's live broadcast or official transcripts for exact matches of these phrases, with plural or possessive forms also qualifying. If the rally is canceled or postponed beyond 14 days, the "Event does not qualify" market resolves to Yes, nullifying all others. Postponements announced within 24 hours for rescheduling within 14 days keep markets open. The determination is made by Kalshi employees, using video consensus or transcripts if needed.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts regarding what Senator Sanders will discuss at the rally. While analysts often provide qualitative assessments, this market aggregates the collective judgment of many individuals, expressed through real-money wagers. This can sometimes reveal insights that differ from expert opinions, particularly regarding the likelihood of specific, nuanced statements. It’s important to remember that both approaches have value, but this market provides a quantitative measure of belief about the event’s outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential statements from Senator Sanders, and the prices of these contracts reflect the market’s assessment of their probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a contract is determined by supply and demand; as more people buy a contract, its price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability of that outcome. Conversely, increased selling pressure lowers the price. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market reflects the most up-to-date information and collective intelligence.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will assess whether Senator Sanders made each statement during his rally, based on transcripts and reliable news coverage. The resolution will be based on the complete text of the speech as reported by reputable sources. The outcome will be determined by whether the statement was explicitly uttered by Senator Sanders during the rally, and not inferred or paraphrased.
Several signals and events could significantly impact this market before it resolves. Any official statements from Senator Sanders’ campaign regarding the rally’s focus or planned remarks would be a major catalyst. News reports detailing the intended themes of the speech, or leaks of prepared text, could also shift the odds. Unexpected political developments or current events that might prompt Senator Sanders to address specific issues could also move this market. Finally, any significant changes in public opinion or media coverage surrounding the topics likely to be discussed could influence trader behavior.
