TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 1:15 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks whether Bernie Sanders will mention specific topics during his Ballots Over Billionaires Rally scheduled for October 3, 2026. The rally is a public speaking engagement where Sanders may address various issues, and the outcome depends on whether he utters any of the predefined phrases during his official remarks.
Kalshi
The event evaluates whether Bernie Sanders utters any of 23 specified phrases during his Ballots Over Billionaires Rally scheduled for October 3, 2026. Each phrase corresponds to a separate market that resolves to Yes if Sanders says the exact phrase (or its plural/possessive form) in an official capacity during the rally. Resolution relies primarily on live broadcast or stream video, with official transcripts used as a tiebreaker if needed. Markets resolve to No if the phrase isn’t spoken. A separate market for 'Event does not qualify' resolves to Yes if the rally is definitively canceled, postponed beyond 14 days, or otherwise fails to meet payout criteria—triggering all other markets to resolve to No. Postponements announced within one day and rescheduled within 14 days keep markets open.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a unique perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for what Senator Sanders will discuss at the rally. While polls and expert opinions provide valuable insights into potential talking points, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, reflecting real-time beliefs about the likelihood of specific statements. Discrepancies between this market and analyst predictions can highlight areas where traders possess information or perspectives not fully captured by conventional analysis, offering a potentially more nuanced view of the event’s likely content.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning buyers and sellers set the prices for contracts representing whether or not Senator Sanders will make specific statements. The price of a contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of the probability of that statement being uttered. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders can buy ‘yes’ contracts if they believe a statement is likely to be made, or sell ‘yes’ contracts if they believe it is unlikely, profiting if their prediction proves correct. The market dynamically adjusts as new information becomes available and traders update their beliefs.
This market resolves around Oct 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, a review of transcripts and video recordings of Senator Sanders’ Ballots Over Billionaires rally speech will be used to determine whether each statement in this market was made. The resolution will be based on a clear and unambiguous utterance of the statement, as determined by publicly available sources. Traders will be able to see the final outcome and whether their contracts settled in their favor following the resolution process.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before it resolves. Any official statements released by Senator Sanders’ campaign regarding the rally’s focus or planned remarks would likely impact trading activity. Unexpected political developments or breaking news related to the issues Senator Sanders typically addresses could also shift market sentiment. Furthermore, any pre-rally interviews or media appearances by Senator Sanders could provide clues about his intended message, influencing traders’ positions in this market. Increased media coverage of the rally itself could also drive volume and price fluctuations.
