TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 14, 7:09 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks whether specific phrases will be mentioned during a scheduled news broadcast. The outcome depends on the content of the live broadcast, with certain predefined terms triggering a resolution. The broadcast's video or transcript will serve as the primary source for verification.
Kalshi
The event resolves based on whether any host or reporter during the ABC World News Tonight broadcast scheduled for October 14, 2026, utters any of the specified phrases. Each market corresponds to a unique phrase or set of phrases (e.g., "Trump," "Pope Leo," "AI / Artificial Intelligence"). If the exact phrase, or its plural/possessive form, is spoken during the broadcast, the relevant market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Resolution primarily uses video of the broadcast, with transcripts serving as a secondary source if video consensus cannot be reached. Promotional content within the broadcast counts, but advertisements do not. If the broadcast is postponed and rescheduled within 14 calendar days, markets remain open. The entire original broadcast content is considered for resolution, excluding any material not part of the initial broadcast or stream.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often provide a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts rely on expert opinions and models, this market reflects the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders. These traders weigh various factors, including news developments, social media trends, and potential political implications, to assess the likelihood of different topics appearing on ABC World News Tonight. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, as markets can incorporate information more quickly and efficiently than traditional forecasting methods.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether a topic will be mentioned. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, with higher prices indicating a greater perceived likelihood. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades depend on correctly anticipating market movements. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market odds are constantly updated based on the latest information and collective intelligence of the participants.
This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on a review of the ABC World News Tonight broadcast transcript to determine if the topics listed in this market were mentioned during the program. The outcome will be determined by whether any reporter said the topic during the broadcast. The market will settle to 100 if the topic was mentioned, and 0 if it was not.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Breaking news events, particularly those related to the topics offered in this market, would likely cause substantial price movements. Major political developments, economic announcements, or significant social trends could all influence the perceived likelihood of certain topics being covered on ABC World News Tonight. Unexpected statements from key figures or shifts in the news cycle could also drive trading activity and alter the market’s probabilities. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for anyone looking to trade in this market.
