TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 9:52 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
The market tracks whether specific political and policy-related terms are mentioned by a guest during a scheduled television interview. The outcome depends solely on the verbal content of the broadcast, with clear criteria for what constitutes a qualifying mention.
Kalshi
The event resolves based on whether Abdul El-Sayed utters any of the specified phrases during the Fox News: The Story with Martha MacCallum interview scheduled for October 5, 2026. Each market corresponds to a distinct phrase or category (e.g., "Trump," "Healthcare," "Billionaire"), and the market resolves to Yes if the exact phrase, or its plural/possessive form, is spoken by El-Sayed in an official capacity during the live broadcast. Payment criteria exclude grammatical variations, off-mic comments, archival footage, or unaired content. If the event is canceled, the "Event does not qualify" market resolves to Yes, closing all others. Postponements within 14 days keep markets open. Resolution relies first on live video, then on official transcripts if video consensus cannot be reached.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts for what Abdul El-Sayed will discuss during his Fox News interview. While analysts often provide qualitative assessments, this market aggregates the collective judgment of many individuals, expressed as probabilities. These probabilities can sometimes diverge from expert opinions, reflecting a broader range of perspectives and potential scenarios. It's important to consider both sources of information when forming your own expectations for the interview.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential statements by Abdul El-Sayed, and the prices of these contracts determine the implied probabilities. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a contract reflects the market's assessment of the likelihood that the corresponding statement will be made during the interview. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices will adjust, providing a dynamic forecast of the event's outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on a review of the complete transcript and video recording of Abdul El-Sayed’s interview on Fox News: The Story with Martha MacCallum. The market will determine whether each statement in the market was explicitly made by El-Sayed during the broadcast, and the outcome will be based on that determination.
Several signals could significantly move this market before the interview takes place. Any pre-interview statements made by Abdul El-Sayed himself, or by Martha MacCallum, regarding the topics likely to be discussed could shift probabilities. News coverage focusing on El-Sayed’s recent work or policy positions could also influence trading activity. Finally, any unexpected developments in the political landscape or current events that are relevant to his areas of expertise could cause traders to reassess their predictions and adjust their positions in this market.
