TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 9:15 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks whether specific political and policy-related terms are mentioned during a scheduled television interview. The outcome depends solely on the verbatim inclusion of predefined phrases within the live broadcast, making it a direct observation-based resolution.
Kalshi
The event evaluates whether Abdul El-Sayed utters any of sixteen specified terms or phrases during the MS NOW: All In with Chris Hayes broadcast scheduled for October 5, 2026. Each term—including names, policies, and organizations—has an individual market that resolves to Yes if the exact phrase (or its plural/possessive form) is spoken by El-Sayed in an official capacity during the live show. Resolution relies primarily on reviewing the live video broadcast; if video review is inconclusive, official transcripts are used. Markets resolve to No if the term is not spoken, if the event is postponed beyond the specified window without rescheduling within 14 days, or if the broadcast contains only unaired content, archival footage, or off-mic remarks. A separate "Event does not qualify" market resolves to Yes if the show is canceled, fails to meet payout criteria, or any circumstance prevents normal resolution, automatically setting all other markets to No. Postponements announced within one calendar day with rescheduling within 14 days keep all markets open.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinion. Currently, this market reflects the probability of specific statements from Dr. El-Sayed, as determined by traders on Kalshi. While traditional political analysts and commentators offer their predictions, this market provides a continuously updated assessment based on actual money at stake. Discrepancies between the two can highlight areas where the crowd anticipates a different outcome than experts, or where the market has identified information not yet fully incorporated into conventional analysis.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of specific statements being made by Abdul El-Sayed. As more traders buy a contract, its price increases, reflecting a higher perceived probability. Conversely, selling pressure lowers the price. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each contract directly corresponds to the implied probability, allowing for a transparent and efficient price discovery process. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market reflects the latest information and sentiment.
This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on a transcript or reliable recording of the All In with Chris Hayes interview featuring Abdul El-Sayed. The contracts will pay out based on whether the specified statements were demonstrably made during the broadcast. The outcome will be determined by assessing the complete interview content against the market’s defined conditions.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before resolution. Any pre-interview statements made by Abdul El-Sayed, or previews of the interview’s focus from Chris Hayes or MSNBC, could influence trading activity. Major news events related to the topics Dr. El-Sayed frequently discusses – public health, politics, or current affairs – could also shift expectations. Unexpected developments in these areas could lead traders to reassess the likelihood of certain statements being made during the interview, impacting the prices within this market.
