TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 6:05 AM EST
Opinion
An "↑" market resolves to "Yes" if the official daily "High" for Tesla (TSLA) is at or above the price specified in the market at any point inside the window; an "↓" market resolves to "Yes" if the official daily "Low" is at or below the specified price. Boundary touches count. Markets whose level is never reached before the deadline resolve "No". In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting Tesla (TSLA), these markets resolve on split-adjusted prices, and the price specified in each market is adjusted proportionally. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Tesla (TSLA) daily price data available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/. If that data is unavailable due to an outage or other technical disruption, the official price published by the primary exchange on which Tesla (TSLA) trades governs.
An "↑" market resolves to "Yes" if the official daily "High" for Tesla (TSLA) is at or above the price specified in the market at any point inside the window; an "↓" market resolves to "Yes" if the official daily "Low" is at or below the specified price. Boundary touches count. Markets whose level is never reached before the deadline resolve "No". In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting Tesla (TSLA), these markets resolve on split-adjusted prices, and the price specified in each market is adjusted proportionally. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Tesla (TSLA) daily price data available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/. If that data is unavailable due to an outage or other technical disruption, the official price published by the primary exchange on which Tesla (TSLA) trades governs.
Currently, analysts’ price targets for Tesla in October 2026 vary widely, with estimates ranging from pessimistic scenarios to optimistic projections based on growth forecasts and technological advancements. This market offers a different perspective, reflecting the collective judgment of individuals incentivized to accurately predict the future price. While analyst forecasts represent expert opinions, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a more nuanced and up-to-date view of likely outcomes. It’s important to remember that both approaches have inherent limitations.
On Opinion, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing different TSLA price levels. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that price being reached. On Opinion, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe a specific price is likely, the higher the contract price will climb, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market constantly adjusts to new information and changing sentiment surrounding Tesla’s future performance.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will resolve to the closing price of Tesla (TSLA) stock on the final trading day of October 2026. The closing price will be sourced from a major stock exchange and will serve as the definitive outcome for determining winning and losing contracts in this market. Traders should monitor this date for the final settlement of their positions.
Numerous factors could significantly influence this market between now and Nov 1, 2026. Key catalysts include major announcements regarding Tesla’s vehicle production, battery technology breakthroughs, changes in regulatory policies affecting the electric vehicle industry, and broader macroeconomic conditions impacting the stock market. Unexpected events like supply chain disruptions, shifts in consumer demand, or significant competitive pressures could also cause substantial price movements. Any news impacting Tesla’s financial performance or future growth prospects will likely be reflected in the market’s pricing.