TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 30, 11:12 PM EST
Opinion
An "↑" market resolves to "Yes" if the official daily "High" for NVIDIA (NVDA) is at or above the price specified in the market at any point inside the window; an "↓" market resolves to "Yes" if the official daily "Low" is at or below the specified price. Boundary touches count. Markets whose level is never reached before the deadline resolve "No". In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting NVIDIA (NVDA), these markets resolve on split-adjusted prices, and the price specified in each market is adjusted proportionally. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the NVIDIA (NVDA) daily price data available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/. If that data is unavailable due to an outage or other technical disruption, the official price published by the primary exchange on which NVIDIA (NVDA) trades governs.
An "↑" market resolves to "Yes" if the official daily "High" for NVIDIA (NVDA) is at or above the price specified in the market at any point inside the window; an "↓" market resolves to "Yes" if the official daily "Low" is at or below the specified price. Boundary touches count. Markets whose level is never reached before the deadline resolve "No". In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting NVIDIA (NVDA), these markets resolve on split-adjusted prices, and the price specified in each market is adjusted proportionally. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the NVIDIA (NVDA) daily price data available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/. If that data is unavailable due to an outage or other technical disruption, the official price published by the primary exchange on which NVIDIA (NVDA) trades governs.
Currently, prediction market participants are expressing a view on NVIDIA’s stock price that may differ from traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts often provide point estimates or ranges, this market allows for a probabilistic assessment of many potential outcomes. It’s common to see discrepancies between prediction market prices and analyst expectations, as the market incorporates a wider range of information and reflects the collective judgment of a diverse group of traders. This market provides a unique perspective, aggregating insights beyond those found in typical financial reports.
On Opinion, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing different NVIDIA stock prices. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that price being reached by the specified date. On Opinion, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market efficiently incorporates new information as traders react to news and events, constantly updating the implied probabilities. Demand for contracts at higher price points indicates bullish sentiment, while demand for lower price points suggests bearish expectations. The current implied distribution reflects the collective wisdom of the crowd.
This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the closing price of NVIDIA (NVDA) stock on the Friday of the week of October 26, 2026, will be used to determine the winning contracts. Traders will be able to see which price point was closest to the actual closing price, and payouts will be awarded accordingly. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider, ensuring a transparent and objective resolution.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major announcements from NVIDIA regarding new products, earnings reports, and overall financial performance will be key drivers. Broader macroeconomic trends, such as interest rate changes, inflation data, and global economic growth, could also influence investor sentiment. Unexpected technological breakthroughs in the AI or semiconductor industries, or significant shifts in market share, could also cause substantial price movements. Geopolitical events and regulatory changes affecting the tech sector are additional potential catalysts for shifts in this market.