TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.8b

24H VOL:

$119,205,487

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,317,581,230

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,172,792,273

330,375

Markets across

32,561

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,019

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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What price will Bitcoin hit in August?
Crypto
predict
opinion
kalshi
polymarket

What price will Bitcoin hit in August?

Total volume:
$19,761,669
Volume 24h:
$5,989,905
151%
Liquidity:
$1,098,621
51%
Open interest:
$2,159,380
67%

↓ 75,000

 - Polymarket

↓ 75,000 - Polymarket

66%

-7.1%

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

50%55%60%65%70%75%

Aug 21

Aug 21

Aug 21

Aug 22

Aug 22

Aug 22

Aug 22

Vol.

$3k

·

Resolves Sep 1, 2026

Time left: 09d:22h:38m

Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in August?

65%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 66¢ buys you 152 shares | Odds: 65% Total Payout: $152 | Net Profit: $52 Multiplier: 1.52x | ROI: 52% APY not meaningful 9 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result

Intro

This market tracks whether Bitcoin's trimmed mean will exceed $80,000.00 by the end of August 2026. The aggregated consensus probability from Predict, Opinion, Kalshi, and Polymarket shows a leading outcome likelihood of 82.0%. Resolution will be determined using Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle data. Watch for price movements during the August 2026 trading period, as this will directly influence the outcome.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms use Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle data to determine if Bitcoin reaches specified price thresholds during August 2026, resolving immediately upon occurrence.Primary resolution logic: Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle data

Core resolution logic:

  • A 'Yes' outcome occurs if any Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle's high equals or exceeds the specified upward price threshold during August 2026
  • A 'Yes' outcome occurs if any Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle's low equals or falls below the specified downward price threshold during August 2026
  • Markets resolve immediately when the price threshold is first reached

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Neither threshold reached: Markets with binary outcomes will resolve to 'No'. Markets structured as 'first to hit' will resolve 50-50 if neither price is reached.
  • Multiple thresholds reached: For binary markets, 'Yes' resolves upon first occurrence. For 'first to hit' markets, the first occurrence determines the outcome.
Timing: Resolution occurs immediately when the specified price threshold is first reached during August 2026Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Show more

Polymarket

What price will Bitcoin hit in August?

Kalshi

The event evaluates multiple Bitcoin price thresholds across August 2026, with each threshold representing a distinct market outcome. For any given threshold, the market resolves to 'Yes' if Bitcoin's price, measured minute-by-minute, ever exceeds that threshold during the specified period. To calculate the settlement value, every minute-by-minute CF BRTI price for Bitcoin is analyzed. For each minute, a trimmed mean is calculated by removing the top 20% and bottom 20% of the cumulative dataset before averaging the remaining values. If this trimmed mean for any single minute exceeds the relevant threshold, the market resolves to 'Yes.' This trimmed mean approach mitigates the impact of extreme price volatility, ensuring a more stable assessment of price levels. The measurement period spans from market issuance through August 31, 2026, ending at 11:59 PM ET. If CF Benchmarks data is unavailable or incomplete at expiration, the affected markets resolve to 'No.' The exchange specifies which version or ticker of Bitcoin is being tracked when multiple versions exist.

Predict

This market will resolve to the lower price in the title if BTC’s price dips to that level or below before it hits the higher title price between August 5th, 2026 at 7:00 AM ET and October 5th, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. It will resolve to the higher price in the title if BTC’s price first reaches that level or above before it dips to the lower title price during the same period. If neither price level is reached within the market timeframe, the market will resolve 50–50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" and "Low" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Opinion

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if, during the date range specified in the title (from 12:00 AM ET on the first date to 11:59 PM ET on the last date), any Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT reaches the price specified in the title in the specified direction — for an "above" market, a final "High" price equal to or greater than that price; for a "below" market, a final "Low" price equal to or less than that price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Bitcoin price market aggregates data from multiple venues, showing how traders across Polymarket and Kalshi price the likelihood of different outcomes. It displays current odds, volume of $19,761,415, and 24-hour volume of $3,165,516, giving you a real-time consensus view of where the market expects Bitcoin to trade by the end of August.

Prediction market odds offer a forward-looking perspective that often diverges from current spot prices. While spot prices reflect recent trading activity, this market incorporates expectations about macroeconomic factors, regulatory news, and technological developments through August. The current odds reflect a market view that can be more bullish or bearish than the present spot price, depending on upcoming events and sentiment shifts.

On Polymarket and Kalshi, pricing can vary due to differences in user bases, liquidity, and market design. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For instance, one platform might attract more retail traders reacting quickly to news, while the other could see slower, institutional-style trading. This can lead to noticeable spreads of 2.5 between the two venues, especially as new information emerges about Bitcoin’s potential price movements.

This market resolves around Sep 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final price of Bitcoin as of the close of August will be compared against the market’s defined thresholds, and the result will be settled based on widely accepted data sources.

Key signals include macroeconomic announcements, central bank policies affecting crypto, regulatory updates, major exchange developments, and Bitcoin’s adoption metrics. Any unexpected volatility or large institutional trades could also shift expectations. Additionally, technical developments within the Bitcoin network, such as significant upgrades or security events, may influence this market as August approaches.