TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 9, 11:07 PM EST
Opinion
An "↑" market resolves to "Yes" if the official daily "High" for Apple (AAPL) is at or above the price specified in the market at any point inside the window; an "↓" market resolves to "Yes" if the official daily "Low" is at or below the specified price. Boundary touches count. Markets whose level is never reached before the deadline resolve "No". In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting Apple (AAPL), these markets resolve on split-adjusted prices, and the price specified in each market is adjusted proportionally. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Apple (AAPL) daily price data available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/. If that data is unavailable due to an outage or other technical disruption, the official price published by the primary exchange on which Apple (AAPL) trades governs.
An "↑" market resolves to "Yes" if the official daily "High" for Apple (AAPL) is at or above the price specified in the market at any point inside the window; an "↓" market resolves to "Yes" if the official daily "Low" is at or below the specified price. Boundary touches count. Markets whose level is never reached before the deadline resolve "No". In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting Apple (AAPL), these markets resolve on split-adjusted prices, and the price specified in each market is adjusted proportionally. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Apple (AAPL) daily price data available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/. If that data is unavailable due to an outage or other technical disruption, the official price published by the primary exchange on which Apple (AAPL) trades governs.
Currently, prediction market participants are expressing their views on where Apple’s stock price will be in October 2026. This differs from traditional analyst forecasts, which often rely on financial modeling and company reports. While analysts may provide a range of price targets, this market aggregates the collective wisdom of individuals willing to put their money behind their beliefs. It’s important to remember that both approaches have their strengths and weaknesses, and comparing them can offer a more comprehensive perspective on potential outcomes for Apple.
On Opinion, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing different Apple stock prices. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of Apple reaching that specific price by the resolution date. On Opinion, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe a particular price is likely, the higher the contract price will climb, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market reflects the latest information and collective intelligence of participants.
This market resolves around Oct 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will settle based on the closing price of Apple (AAPL) stock on the Friday of the week of October 5, 2026. The closing price will be sourced from a major financial exchange and verified against credible public sources. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their predicted price range aligns with the actual closing price at that time.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major announcements from Apple regarding new products, earnings reports, or strategic shifts could all cause substantial price movements. Broader economic conditions, such as interest rate changes or recessions, will also play a role. Unexpected geopolitical events or significant changes in the technology sector could also influence investor sentiment and, consequently, the prices within this market. Any news that alters perceptions of Apple’s future growth prospects is likely to be reflected in trading activity.