TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 30, 11:06 PM EST
Opinion
An "↑" market resolves to "Yes" if the official daily "High" for Apple (AAPL) is at or above the price specified in the market at any point inside the window; an "↓" market resolves to "Yes" if the official daily "Low" is at or below the specified price. Boundary touches count. Markets whose level is never reached before the deadline resolve "No". In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting Apple (AAPL), these markets resolve on split-adjusted prices, and the price specified in each market is adjusted proportionally. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Apple (AAPL) daily price data available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/. If that data is unavailable due to an outage or other technical disruption, the official price published by the primary exchange on which Apple (AAPL) trades governs.
An "↑" market resolves to "Yes" if the official daily "High" for Apple (AAPL) is at or above the price specified in the market at any point inside the window; an "↓" market resolves to "Yes" if the official daily "Low" is at or below the specified price. Boundary touches count. Markets whose level is never reached before the deadline resolve "No". In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting Apple (AAPL), these markets resolve on split-adjusted prices, and the price specified in each market is adjusted proportionally. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Apple (AAPL) daily price data available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/. If that data is unavailable due to an outage or other technical disruption, the official price published by the primary exchange on which Apple (AAPL) trades governs.
Currently, the prevailing sentiment in this market suggests a higher probability of Apple’s stock price increasing than decreasing. This contrasts with some analyst forecasts, which present a more mixed outlook, with some predicting moderate growth and others anticipating a potential correction. It's important to remember that analyst forecasts are based on models and subjective assessments, whereas this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders willing to put their capital at risk. The difference between these viewpoints highlights the value of considering diverse sources of information when evaluating potential investment scenarios.
On Opinion, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different price outcomes for Apple stock. The price of each contract reflects the current market consensus on the probability of that outcome occurring. On Opinion, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe a particular price will be hit, the higher the contract price will climb, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market odds are constantly updated to reflect the latest information and sentiment.
This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the closing price of Apple stock during the week of October 26, 2026, will be used to determine the winning outcome. The market will then pay out to those who correctly predicted the price range that Apple’s stock would reach. Traders should monitor news and financial data leading up to the resolution date to stay informed about potential catalysts that could influence the stock price.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major product announcements from Apple, such as new iPhone or Mac releases, often drive stock price movements. Broader economic trends, like interest rate changes or shifts in consumer spending, will also play a role. Unexpected events, such as geopolitical instability or significant disruptions to Apple’s supply chain, could introduce volatility. Furthermore, earnings reports and guidance from Apple’s management team will be closely scrutinized by traders and could cause substantial shifts in the probabilities reflected in this market.