TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 29, 12:50 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
Local government elections are scheduled to be held across Tasmania on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of the West Tamar Council area as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as declared by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (https://www.tec.tas.gov.au/).
Polymarket
Local government elections are scheduled to be held across Tasmania on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of the West Tamar Council area as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as declared by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (https://www.tec.tas.gov.au/).
Frequently asked questions
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders can buy and sell shares representing their belief in each candidate’s chance of winning. The price of these shares fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability estimate. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price reflects the collective wisdom of the crowd, and changes rapidly as new information becomes available or sentiment shifts. Currently, the market is indicating a strong likelihood of a specific outcome, as reflected in the share prices.
This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official results announced by the relevant electoral authority for the West Tamar mayoral election. The candidate who receives the most votes in the official election will be declared the winner, and that outcome will determine the settlement of this market. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or settle their losing positions.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 28, 2026. Major endorsements from influential figures, unexpected policy announcements from candidates, or significant shifts in media coverage could all impact trader sentiment. Additionally, any controversies or scandals involving the candidates could lead to rapid price adjustments. Finally, the release of new polling data, even if it contradicts existing trends, could also cause the market to re-evaluate the probabilities and adjust accordingly. Monitoring these factors will be key to understanding the dynamics of this market.
