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Washington passes ballot measure restricting transgender school sports access?
Washington passes ballot measure restricting transgender school sports access?
- Polymarket
Washington passes ballot measure restricting transgender school sports access? - Polymarket
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Resolves Nov 3, 2026
Time left: 01d:06h:06m
Washington passes ballot measure restricting transgender school sports access?
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Washington passes ballot measure restricting transgender school sports access?
Description
Washington ballot initiative IL26-638 is a ballot measure scheduled to appear in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would restrict certain school sports based on an individual's biological sex. This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Washington statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Washington, including the Washington Secretary of State (https://www.sos.wa.gov/).
Polymarket
Washington ballot initiative IL26-638 is a ballot measure scheduled to appear in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would restrict certain school sports based on an individual's biological sex. This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Washington statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Washington, including the Washington Secretary of State (https://www.sos.wa.gov/).
Frequently asked questions
Currently, this market reflects a different outlook than public polling averages. While polls may show varied support levels, traders are pricing in their own expectations based on recent political dynamics, media coverage, and fundraising trends. The gap between this market and polling data can highlight areas where bettors see differing risks or information advantages.
On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, traders set the price through buying and selling contracts that represent the possible outcomes. The current top outcome has a chance of 63.0%, with volume of $2,516. Prices shift based on new information flows, trader sentiment, and overall market activity specific to Polymarket.
This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result will depend on official vote tallies following the election, and any certified recount processes, after which the market will close and payouts will be issued.
Public opinion polls, statements from key political leaders, and legislative developments in Washington state could shift this market. Media coverage of related debates, endorsements from influential groups, and any court rulings on similar policies may also affect trader sentiment. As Nov 4, 2026 approaches, updated polling data and campaign milestones will likely drive volatility in this market.
