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Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?
Politics
polymarket
k

Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?

Total volume:
$54,560
Volume 24h:
$143
25%
Liquidity:
$71,357
0.24%
Open interest:
$19,981
0%

Before Jan 1, 2028

 - Kalshi

Before Jan 1, 2028 - Kalshi

12%

+0%

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

10%15%20%25%

No volume data

Aug 14

Aug 16

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Aug 18

Aug 19

Aug 20

Aug 21

Vol.

$0.0

·

Resolves Jul 1, 2027

Will the President try to fire the Chair of the Federal Reserve before Jan 1, 2028?

12%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
k

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 12¢ buys you 833 shares | Odds: 12% Total Payout: $833 | Net Profit: $733 Multiplier: 8.33x | ROI: 733% APY not meaningful 132 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
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Chance %
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7d
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Ends in
Result

Description

This event group tracks whether Kevin Warsh will cease to be the Chair of the Federal Reserve by specific future dates. The markets differ in their resolution criteria and timelines.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Divergence in resolution criteria: Kalshi focuses on the President trying to fire the Chair, while Polymarket requires an official announcement of departure by a specific date.Hero tip: Be aware that a forced resignation without an official announcement might resolve Kalshi markets but not Polymarket markets. Monitor official announcements and presidential actions closely.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Resolves to Yes if the President of the United States has tried to fire the Chair of the Federal Reserve before the specified date. Key Quote: "If the President of the United States has tried to fire the Chair of the Federal Reserve before [date], then the market resolves to Yes."
  • Polymarket: Resolves to Yes if Kevin Warsh’s departure as Chair of the Federal Reserve is officially announced by the specified date. Key Quote: "This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kevin Warsh’s departure as Chair of the Federal Reserve of the United States is officially announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kevin Warsh’s departure as Chair of the Federal Reserve of the United States is officially announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The departure will be considered to be announced when Kevin Warsh, the Federal Reserve of the United States, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Kevin Warsh has ceased or will cease to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve of the United States. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person's resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify. Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither "I will leave office in 2 years," nor "I will not be in office forever," would qualify). Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person's duties in the specified position do not qualify. The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives. If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that they will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of their term qualify. If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the end of their scheduled term without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve to "Yes" if a consensus of credible reporting confirms the departure by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Kevin Warsh and the Federal Reserve of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

These markets resolve based on whether the U.S. President takes any formal action to attempt the termination of the Chair of the Federal Reserve before specified dates ranging from September 1, 2026 to January 1, 2028. A qualifying 'try to fire' includes the President signing an executive order or memorandum stating termination, directing a Cabinet member or senior official to terminate the Chair, making a public statement announcing the firing, having the White House officially announce termination, sending written termination notice to the Chair, or initiating formal legal removal proceedings. Actions such as suggesting the Chair should resign, expressing dissatisfaction, pressuring for voluntary resignation, stating the President is 'looking into' removal, or unsent termination letters do not count. The resolution depends solely on the occurrence of a qualifying attempt, regardless of whether it succeeds legally or results in the Chair actually leaving office.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Fed Chair Warsh market aggregates real-time data from multiple venues, showing how traders price the likelihood of Warsh exiting his role. It displays current odds, volume of $54,560, and 24-hour volume of $0 across platforms. This centralized view helps users monitor sentiment shifts and compare expectations for Warsh's future with other political and economic events.

On Polymarket and Kalshi, prices can vary due to differences in user bases, liquidity, and market design. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For instance, one platform might attract more retail traders reacting quickly to news, while the other could see larger institutional positions adjusting more slowly. These dynamics often create a spread of 0.5 between the two venues, reflecting varied risk assessments and trading activity despite tracking the same underlying event.

This market resolves around Jul 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final determination will depend on authoritative announcements or widely reported developments confirming whether the specified condition has occurred, after which the market will close and payouts will be processed according to the rules of each platform.

Key signals that could shift probabilities in this market include official statements from the administration, legislative actions affecting Federal Reserve independence, economic data influencing political pressure, and any health or personal developments involving Warsh. Major news coverage or credible insider reports are also typical catalysts that can cause rapid re-pricing as traders reassess the likelihood of the event taking place before the deadline.