TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 29, 3:00 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This group forecasts the winner of the Waratah–Wynyard mayoral election in Tasmania, Australia, scheduled for October 27, 2026. Markets exist for specific candidates as well as an 'other' option, covering the possibility of an unforeseen winner.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Polymarket offers a comprehensive list of candidates including an 'Other' option, while Kalshi only lists a limited set of candidates. The resolution timelines also differ.Hero tip: Focus on Polymarket for broader coverage and a defined 'Other' option. Be mindful of Kalshi's limited candidate list and lack of a resolution deadline.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Resolves based on the official results from the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (TEC). Includes markets for numerous candidates and an 'Other' option. If no result is known by March 31, 2027, it resolves to 'Other'. "If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as declared by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (https://www.tec.tas.gov.au/)"
- Kalshi: Resolves to 'Yes' if a specific listed candidate wins. No explicit handling of an 'Other' candidate or a resolution deadline. "If Chloe Foster wins the 2026 Waratah-Wynyard mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes."
Polymarket
Local government elections are scheduled to be held across Tasmania on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of the Waratah–Wynyard Council area as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as declared by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (https://www.tec.tas.gov.au/).
Kalshi
This market resolves to Yes if any listed candidate wins the 2026 Waratah-Wynyard mayoral election. Each candidate-specific rule defines a separate winning condition, and the market is eligible for accelerated resolution through a consensus of media calls.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls capture stated preferences, this market reflects what people are willing to *stake* on those preferences, which can be a stronger signal of belief. Polling data can be susceptible to biases like social desirability, while prediction markets incentivize accurate forecasting. However, both can be valuable sources of information. It’s important to consider that prediction market volume is still relatively modest at $29,805, meaning prices can be more volatile than established polls. This market provides a unique, forward-looking indicator.