TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$235,918,089

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2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,884,820,873

413,109

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40,428

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4,364

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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Visa (V) Q4 payments volume growth (constant dollars)?
polymarket

Visa (V) Q4 payments volume growth (constant dollars)?

Volume:
$22,989

9.5% to 10.5%

 - Polymarket

9.5% to 10.5% - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 27, 2026

Closed: Oct 27, 6:46 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

9.5% to 10.5%

View
100%
56%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$10,160
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

8.5% to 9.5%

View
0%
41%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,570
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

7.5% to 8.5%

View
0%
10%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,516
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

10.5%+

View
0%
16%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,120
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<7.5%

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$623
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve according to Visa's payments volume growth (constant dollars) (year-over-year) for the upcoming fourth fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials. The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is the specified company's official earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to Visa's payments volume growth (constant dollars) (year-over-year) for the upcoming fourth fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials. The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is the specified company's official earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Visa payments volume market tracks the current odds of various outcomes for Q4 payments volume growth, expressed as a percentage. You can view the price history of this market, allowing you to see how traders’ beliefs have shifted over time. Additionally, the dashboard displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $16,739, and the total volume traded to date, which is $22,939. This provides insight into how actively this market is being traded and the level of interest in predicting Visa’s performance.

Currently, the prevailing sentiment in this market suggests a high probability of Visa’s Q4 payments volume growth exceeding a certain threshold, as reflected in the odds on Polymarket. This differs from some traditional analyst forecasts, which present a wider range of expectations. It's important to remember that prediction markets represent the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, while analyst forecasts are typically individual opinions. Comparing this market’s implied probability to those forecasts provides a unique perspective on potential outcomes for Visa’s Q4 performance.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in different outcomes. The price of each share reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe an outcome is likely, the higher the price of its corresponding shares will rise. This dynamic pricing allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust its predictions accordingly, offering a real-time assessment of expectations for Visa’s payments volume growth.

This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official Q4 payments volume growth data for Visa is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the percentage change in Visa’s payments volume, calculated in constant dollars, as reported by Visa itself in its official financial statements. Traders will then be able to see which outcome aligned with the actual reported growth, and payouts will be distributed accordingly based on the market’s rules.

Several factors could influence the price action in this market leading up to Oct 27, 2026. Any news regarding overall consumer spending trends, particularly in the retail and travel sectors, could significantly impact expectations for Visa’s payments volume. Furthermore, announcements from Visa about new partnerships, product launches, or changes in their processing fees could also move the market. Macroeconomic data releases, such as inflation reports or GDP growth figures, may also play a role, as these can affect consumer confidence and spending habits.