TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 2, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
The event tracks Velo's point-of-sale growth performance for September 2026, comparing it against various growth thresholds. It uses a year-over-year index calculated from receipt-scanning and rewards app data to determine if spending increased significantly compared to the same month in the previous year.
All markets resolve based on the Carbon Arc Velo Point of Sale Growth index for September 2026, with each market requiring the index to exceed a specific threshold (ranging from 175 to 265). The index measures year-over-year spending changes, where 100 indicates no change, values above 100 show growth, and values below 100 indicate decline. Determination is made using the first value reported by Carbon Arc, and any corrections or revisions after settlement do not affect the outcome. The index is derived from a panel that captures in-store and online purchases through receipt-scanning and rewards apps, matched to the same period of the prior year, and updates daily as new data becomes available.
On Kalshi, odds from this market often reflect a blend of trader sentiment and available data, sometimes aligning closely with analyst forecasts and sometimes diverging. Where analysts see strong growth signals, this market may price in a higher probability of exceeding targets. However, short-term news or unexpected financial reports can cause this market to move independently of broader consensus.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders collectively set the price through buying and selling contracts that represent the probability of Velo POS growth hitting defined levels. The current top outcome reflects the aggregate view of all participants, with price fluctuations driven by new earnings reports, partnership announcements, or broader market trends affecting Velo’s business outlook.
This market resolves around Oct 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution depends on official financial statements or reputable news sources confirming Velo’s point-of-sale growth metrics for September. Traders will see the final settlement based on these publicly available records.
Key signals that could shift this market include Velo’s upcoming quarterly earnings release, announcements about new partnerships or product launches, and broader economic indicators affecting retail technology spending. Any surprise guidance from management or changes in market conditions that impact point-of-sale adoption rates may cause rapid price adjustments on Kalshi as traders reassess probabilities.