TOTAL VOLUME:

$116.7b

24H VOL:

$99,401,033

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,177,208,320

335,484

Markets across

33,267

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,184

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
MUI X License key version mismatch
Total markets: 16

Intro

This market tracks whether the Valantis token's Fully Diluted Valuation will exceed $20 million exactly one day after its official launch. The aggregated consensus probability for the leading outcome is 64.0%, combining data from Polymarket and Predict platforms. Resolution is determined by the most liquid price source available at the specified time, alongside verification from official Valantis Labs announcements. Watch for the token's official launch, scheduled for January 1, 2028, as this will trigger the market resolution assessment.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms use identical resolution criteria, timing, FDV calculation methodology, token eligibility rules, and deadline.Primary resolution logic: Most liquid price source available at specified resolution time; official Valantis Labs token announcement for launch verification

Core resolution logic:

  • FDV calculated as: total token supply multiplied by token price at 4:00 PM ET on calendar day following launch
  • Resolution occurs at exactly 4:00 PM ET on the day after launch date
  • Token must be official Valantis launch; stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs, and synthetic tokens are excluded
  • Token must be actively and publicly tradable to qualify as a launch
  • If no token launches by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, all markets in group resolve to NO
  • YES if FDV exceeds threshold specified in market title; NO if FDV is at or below threshold

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Multiple token launches: Only the first official Valantis token launch counts; subsequent tokens or forks do not qualify
  • Launch timing ambiguity: Launch date is determined by when token becomes actively and publicly tradable; 1 day after is the calendar day following, with resolution at 4:00 PM ET
  • Liquidity source unavailable: Resolution uses most liquid price source available; if primary source fails, next most liquid source is used
  • Token supply change: Total token supply used is the supply at 4:00 PM ET on resolution day; any minting or burning events up to that moment are included
  • Deadline expiration: If Valantis has not launched an official token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, all markets resolve NO regardless of threshold
Timing: Resolution occurs at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following official Valantis token launch; if no launch occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, markets resolve NOOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Valantis token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Only an official token launched by Valantis will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Valantis (https://x.com/ValantisLabs) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Predict

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Valantis token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Only an official token launched by Valantis will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Valantis (https://x.com/ValantisLabs) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates real-time odds for Valantis's fully diluted valuation threshold across Polymarket and Predict, two leading crypto prediction markets. It displays consensus probability that Valantis will exceed a specified FDV level within one day of launch. The tracker shows Polymarket leaning toward 64.0% on its outcome, while Predict reflects 47.6% on its respective threshold. Combined group volume of $684,824 reflects active trader interest, with $5 in recent 24-hour activity, helping you gauge market conviction and liquidity.

Prediction market odds reflect traders' probabilistic bets on Valantis's post-launch valuation, independent of secondary market spot prices. These odds incorporate tokenomics, launch mechanics, comparable project debuts, and perceived demand. Spot prices on DEXs or CEXs measure real-time trading sentiment but may diverge from launch-day FDV due to liquidity depth, slippage, and timing. The prediction markets isolate the specific question of FDV at exactly one day post-launch, whereas spot prices fluctuate continuously. Comparing both signals helps triangulate whether market participants expect significant momentum or consolidation immediately after launch.

Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Platform differences in user base, liquidity concentration, fee structures, and market-maker participation can create pricing gaps. Polymarket may attract traders focused on lower FDV thresholds, while Predict draws those betting on higher valuations, leading to different implied probabilities. Arbitrage friction, withdrawal delays, and platform-specific slippage prevent instant convergence. Additionally, each platform's order-book depth and recent trade flow influence marginal prices differently. Monitoring both venues reveals where smart money is positioning and highlights potential mispricings for informed traders.

The market resolves on Jan 1, 2028, marking the deadline for determining Valantis's FDV exactly one day after its official launch. Resolution hinges on verifiable on-chain data, official project announcements, and third-party valuation snapshots taken at the specified time. The outcome is binary: either the FDV threshold is exceeded or it is not. Traders should monitor official Valantis channels and market-data providers for precise launch timing, as any ambiguity in launch definition could affect settlement. Mark your calendar and confirm launch details in advance to avoid surprises.

Key catalysts include Valantis's official launch announcement and exact timing, which directly triggers the one-day countdown. Major exchange listings or DEX integrations announced before launch can boost perceived utility and early demand. Broader crypto market rallies or downturns shift risk appetite for new tokens. Competitor launches or regulatory news affecting similar protocols may redirect capital flows. Community sentiment shifts, influencer endorsements, and partnership reveals can accelerate or dampen initial trading volume. Token unlock schedules and early investor lock-up expirations influence supply dynamics. Monitor project communications, market news, and on-chain metrics closely as launch approaches.