TOTAL VOLUME:
$116.7b
24H VOL:
$99,401,033
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,362,287,844
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,177,208,320
335,484
Markets across
33,267
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,184
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
42%
VS.
Kalshi:
58%
$20M
all
2 markets
Polymarket
64%
Predict
33%
consensus
48.5%
spread
33-64%
(31pp)
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Aug 20
Aug 21
Aug 21
Aug 23
Aug 24
Aug 26
Aug 27
Vol.
$8.0
·
Resolves Jan 1, 2028
$
Trade on Polymarket
At 64¢ buys you 156 shares | Odds: 64% Total Payout: $156 | Net Profit: $56 Multiplier: 1.56x | ROI: 56% | APY: 39% Low liquidity 492 days to resolutionTrade on Predict
At 33¢ buys you 303 shares | Odds: 31% Total Payout: $303 | Net Profit: $203 Multiplier: 3.03x | ROI: 203% | APY: 128% 492 days to resolutionThis market tracks whether the Valantis token's Fully Diluted Valuation will exceed $20 million exactly one day after its official launch. The aggregated consensus probability for the leading outcome is 64.0%, combining data from Polymarket and Predict platforms. Resolution is determined by the most liquid price source available at the specified time, alongside verification from official Valantis Labs announcements. Watch for the token's official launch, scheduled for January 1, 2028, as this will trigger the market resolution assessment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Valantis token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Only an official token launched by Valantis will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Valantis (https://x.com/ValantisLabs) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Valantis token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Only an official token launched by Valantis will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Valantis (https://x.com/ValantisLabs) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Prediction market odds reflect traders' probabilistic bets on Valantis's post-launch valuation, independent of secondary market spot prices. These odds incorporate tokenomics, launch mechanics, comparable project debuts, and perceived demand. Spot prices on DEXs or CEXs measure real-time trading sentiment but may diverge from launch-day FDV due to liquidity depth, slippage, and timing. The prediction markets isolate the specific question of FDV at exactly one day post-launch, whereas spot prices fluctuate continuously. Comparing both signals helps triangulate whether market participants expect significant momentum or consolidation immediately after launch.
Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Platform differences in user base, liquidity concentration, fee structures, and market-maker participation can create pricing gaps. Polymarket may attract traders focused on lower FDV thresholds, while Predict draws those betting on higher valuations, leading to different implied probabilities. Arbitrage friction, withdrawal delays, and platform-specific slippage prevent instant convergence. Additionally, each platform's order-book depth and recent trade flow influence marginal prices differently. Monitoring both venues reveals where smart money is positioning and highlights potential mispricings for informed traders.
The market resolves on Jan 1, 2028, marking the deadline for determining Valantis's FDV exactly one day after its official launch. Resolution hinges on verifiable on-chain data, official project announcements, and third-party valuation snapshots taken at the specified time. The outcome is binary: either the FDV threshold is exceeded or it is not. Traders should monitor official Valantis channels and market-data providers for precise launch timing, as any ambiguity in launch definition could affect settlement. Mark your calendar and confirm launch details in advance to avoid surprises.
Key catalysts include Valantis's official launch announcement and exact timing, which directly triggers the one-day countdown. Major exchange listings or DEX integrations announced before launch can boost perceived utility and early demand. Broader crypto market rallies or downturns shift risk appetite for new tokens. Competitor launches or regulatory news affecting similar protocols may redirect capital flows. Community sentiment shifts, influencer endorsements, and partnership reveals can accelerate or dampen initial trading volume. Token unlock schedules and early investor lock-up expirations influence supply dynamics. Monitor project communications, market news, and on-chain metrics closely as launch approaches.