TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.5b

24H VOL:

$271,200,656

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,922,627,141

420,368

Markets across

40,352

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,484

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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VA-01 House Election Winner
⌛Ending Soon
opinion

Who will win the VA-01 House election?

Oct 19, 2026, 10:22 PM EST - Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$6
Volume 24h:
$0N/A
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Rob Wittman (R)

 - Opinion

Rob Wittman (R) - Opinion

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 3, 2026

Time left: 01d:04h:15m

Rob Wittman (R)

39%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
opinion

Trade on Opinion

At 38¢ buys you 263 shares | Odds: 39% Total Payout: $263 | Net Profit: $163 Multiplier: 2.63x | ROI: 163% APY not meaningful
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
opinion

Rob Wittman (R)

Trade
39%
Yes 38¢No 67¢
5¢
N/A
$6
0%
0%
N/A
1d 4h 15m
Active
opinion

Shannon Taylor (D)

Trade
N/A
N/A
5¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 4h 15m
Active
Total markets: 2

Description

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Opinion

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Frequently asked questions

On Opinion, the dashboard for the VA-01 House election tracks the implied probability of each candidate winning, based on the trading activity of users. You’ll find a dynamic price representing the current odds, a historical chart showing how those odds have changed over time, and the total 24-hour volume traded in this market. Currently, the total volume is $6 with $0 traded in the last 24 hours. This provides a real-time view of what participants believe about the likely outcome of the election.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional polling averages. Polling data captures a snapshot of stated voter intentions, while this market represents what people are willing to *bet* will happen. This difference can be significant, especially in closely contested races. Discrepancies may arise from factors like strategic voting, voter turnout assumptions, or the influence of late-breaking events. It’s common to see the market adjust more quickly to new information than polls, as traders actively incorporate developments into their predictions.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The winner of the VA-01 House election, as declared by official election results, will determine the outcome. The resolution will be based on the candidate who receives the most votes and is officially certified as the winner by the relevant election authorities. Traders will then be paid out based on the final result and their positions in this market.

Several factors could significantly shift the odds in this market. Major campaign events, such as debates or rallies, could influence voter perceptions. Unexpected endorsements from prominent figures or shifts in fundraising totals could also have an impact. Furthermore, any significant economic news or national events that affect the political landscape could cause traders to reassess their predictions. Polling data releases, while often different from the market, can still trigger adjustments as new information becomes available. Finally, any unforeseen developments related to the candidates themselves could move this market.