TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 30, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track whether the USD to Mexican Peso exchange rate will exceed specific thresholds at a precise moment. The outcome depends on the official exchange rate snapshot taken at the close of trading on a particular date and time, reflecting currency market conditions at that instant.
All markets resolve based on the USDMXN exchange rate's opening candlestick value at 5pm ET on October 30, 2026, as published by Pyth. Each market has a unique threshold; if the rate exceeds its respective threshold at that exact time, the market resolves to Yes, otherwise to No. The resolution uses the most recent available data from Pyth if no value is published at exactly 5pm ET. Post-expiration revisions to the exchange rate are disregarded. All rates are rounded to four decimal places for resolution purposes. The consistent methodology ensures that each market's outcome is determined solely by the snapshotted rate against its predefined threshold, without influence from subsequent changes or missing data beyond the specified fallback procedure.
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts frequently rely on economic models and geopolitical assessments, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential black swan events. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, particularly when significant uncertainty surrounds the USDMXN exchange rate. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into market expectations and potential risks.
This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the USDMXN exchange rate is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final price will be determined by the mid-price of the USDMXN exchange rate at 5:00 PM EDT on October 30, 2026, as reported by a widely recognized financial data provider. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market’s outcome, reflecting the actual exchange rate at the specified time.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Unexpected shifts in monetary policy from the U.S. Federal Reserve or Banco de México would likely cause volatility. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or GDP figures from either country, could also move the market. Geopolitical events, shifts in global risk sentiment, and even significant changes in oil prices—given Mexico’s role as a major oil producer—are all potential catalysts that could influence the USDMXN exchange rate and, consequently, this market.