TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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USDJPY price on Oct 16 at 5:00 PM EDT
kalshi

What will USDJPY be on Oct 16?

Volume:
$2,700

Above 158.641

 - Kalshi

Above 158.641 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 16, 2026

Closed: Oct 16, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 158.641

View
0%
21%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$359
N/A
N/A
$359
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 158.639

View
0%
24%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$321
N/A
N/A
$321
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 158.637

View
0%
24%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$297
N/A
N/A
$297
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 158.649

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$293
N/A
N/A
$293
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 158.635

View
0%
22%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$270
N/A
N/A
$268
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 158.647

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$268
N/A
N/A
$268
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 158.643

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$243
N/A
N/A
$243
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 158.645

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$243
N/A
N/A
$243
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 158.531

View
0%
23%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 158.511

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 158.621

View
0%
22%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$49
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 158.631

View
0%
19%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$40
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 158.491

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$28
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 158.601

View
0%
22%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$19
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 158.633

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 158.575

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 158.623

View
0%
22%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$24
N/A
N/A
$11
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 158.591

View
0%
20%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$22
N/A
N/A
$22
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 158.619

View
0%
22%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11
N/A
N/A
$6
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 158.571

View
0%
18%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 158.603

View
0%
22%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8
N/A
N/A
$4
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 158.597

View
0%
22%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 158.617

View
0%
22%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6
N/A
N/A
$4
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 158.593

View
0%
20%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4
N/A
N/A
$4
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 158.595

View
0%
22%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3
N/A
N/A
$3
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 90

Description

This set of markets tracks the performance of the USDJPY currency pair at a specific future date and time. Each market has a different threshold value, and the outcome depends on whether the exchange rate exceeds that threshold at the specified moment.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the USDJPY exchange rate's opening candlestick value at 5pm ET on October 16, 2026, as published by Pyth. For each market, if the rate is above the specified threshold at that exact time, the market resolves to 'Yes'; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. The resolution uses the most recent available data from Pyth if no value is published at exactly 5pm ET. Post-expiration revisions to the underlying data are disregarded, and all rates are rounded to four decimal places for evaluation. This consistent framework applies uniformly across all thresholds defined in the individual markets.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for this market tracks the current implied probability of various price levels for the USDJPY exchange rate. You’ll find a dynamic price chart reflecting trader sentiment, as well as the total volume traded – currently $2,700 – and the 24-hour volume, which is $2,521. The dashboard also displays the top outcome currently favored by traders, though it’s important to remember these probabilities can shift rapidly as new information becomes available and traders adjust their positions on the USDJPY exchange rate.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may base their predictions on economic models and historical data, this market represents the collective wisdom of traders responding to a wider range of factors, including real-time news and perceived market sentiment. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, as traders may weigh certain information differently or anticipate unexpected events impacting the USDJPY exchange rate. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into market expectations.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning buyers and sellers submit bids and offers, and the market price fluctuates based on supply and demand. Traders are essentially betting on where they believe the USDJPY exchange rate will be at the specified time. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price reflects the consensus view of all participants, and the volume traded indicates the level of confidence in those predictions. As more traders participate, the price tends to become more efficient and accurate, reflecting a more informed assessment of the potential outcomes.

This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the USDJPY exchange rate is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final price will be determined by a widely-recognized and publicly available source for the exchange rate at 5:00 PM EDT on October 16th. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their predictions aligned with the actual exchange rate at the time of resolution. The market’s resolution is designed to be objective and transparent, ensuring a fair outcome for all participants.

Several key signals and events could significantly move this market before Oct 16, 2026. Major economic data releases from the United States and Japan, such as inflation reports, employment figures, and GDP growth, are likely to have a substantial impact. Unexpected geopolitical events or shifts in monetary policy by the Federal Reserve or the Bank of Japan could also trigger significant price movements. Furthermore, any surprising news related to global trade or risk sentiment could influence traders' expectations for the USDJPY exchange rate, leading to volatility in this market.