TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 27, 12:08 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) adds CVE-2026-109618 or CVE-2026-109619 (the critical PHP vulnerabilities known as “PHP2Shell”) to its Known Exploited Vulnerabilities (KEV) Catalog by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The addition of either CVE will qualify. If either CVE has already been added to the KEV Catalog at the time this market is created, this market will resolve to “Yes”. The “Date Added” shown for the relevant entry in the KEV Catalog will be used to determine whether the addition occurred within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be CISA's Known Exploited Vulnerabilities Catalog (https://www.cisa.gov/known-exploited-vulnerabilities-catalog); however, official CISA announcements and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) adds CVE-2026-109618 or CVE-2026-109619 (the critical PHP vulnerabilities known as “PHP2Shell”) to its Known Exploited Vulnerabilities (KEV) Catalog by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The addition of either CVE will qualify. If either CVE has already been added to the KEV Catalog at the time this market is created, this market will resolve to “Yes”. The “Date Added” shown for the relevant entry in the KEV Catalog will be used to determine whether the addition occurred within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be CISA's Known Exploited Vulnerabilities Catalog (https://www.cisa.gov/known-exploited-vulnerabilities-catalog); however, official CISA announcements and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional polling data regarding the PHP flaw attack. While polls attempt to capture public opinion, this market reflects what traders believe is *most likely* to happen, based on their own analysis and information. This often leads to differences, as market participants may have access to or interpret information differently than those surveyed in polls. It's important to remember that this market represents a forecast of probabilities, not a measure of popular belief.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in each possible outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds are constantly updated and responsive to changing circumstances surrounding the PHP flaw attack.
This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the US government officially confirms the actor responsible for the attack on the PHP flaw. The resolution will be verified against credible public reporting from official government sources and major news outlets. This means the market will settle based on a definitive statement from the US government regarding attribution, not on speculation or unconfirmed reports. Traders should monitor official announcements for updates as the resolution date approaches.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any official statements from the US government regarding the investigation into the PHP flaw attack would be a major catalyst. Similarly, credible reports from cybersecurity firms identifying potential attackers could shift the odds. Unexpected disclosures of new vulnerabilities related to the flaw or evidence linking specific actors to the attack could also cause substantial movement. Monitoring these developments closely will be key to understanding how this market evolves before it resolves.
